Introduction:
Company H was started in 1971 with one pub in Country L and expanded to 163 restaurants in more than 68 countries. This raised the necessity for an improved
Each sales entry represents one customer and the headquarters database receives every sales data. The forecast is made on the basis of data, the guest counts, dinner sales, retail sales, and concert sales at each café. The firm also adopts information from the past year for the particular day and the information from the tourist board for the forthcoming program.
A bonus is given to managers who exceed their targets. The 3-year weighted average technique is adopted to estimate sales. They use multiple regressions to measure the impact of the demand for one item over others. The placements of food items are also taken as a measure to forecast demand.
To describe: Three various forecasting applications adopted at Company H and suggest three areas where Company H can use the forecasting model.
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EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?arrow_forwardUnder what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forward
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.arrow_forwardScenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?arrow_forward
- TIRES FOR YOU - Forecast & EOQ Forecast Tires for You, Inc. (TFY), founded in 1987, is an automotive repair shop specializing in replacement tires. Located in Altoona, PA, TFY has grown successfully over the past few years because of the addition of a new general manager, Katie McMullen. Since tire replacement is a major portion of TFY's business (it also performs oil changes, small mechanical repairs, etc.), Katie was surprised at the lack of forecasts for tire consumption for the company. Her senior mechanic, Skip Grenoble, told her that they usually stocked for this year what they sold last year. He readily admitted that several times throughout the season stockouts occurred and customers had to go elsewhere for tires. Although many tire replacements were for defective or destroyed tires, most tires were installed on cars whose original tires had worn out. Most often, four tires were installed at the same time. Katie was determined to get a better idea of how many tires to…arrow_forwardThe options Outlook has for handling the seasonality of magazine are adding workers during the peak season, subcontracting out some of the work, building up inventory during the slow months, or building up a backlog of orders that will be delivered late to customers. To determine how to best use these options through an aggregate plan, Outlook`s vice president of Marketing starts with the first task-building a demand forecast. Although Outlook could attempt to forecast this demand itself, a much more accurate forecast comes from a collaborative process used by both Outlook and its retailers to produce the forecast shown in Table (a). Outlook sells each book through retailers for Rs.40. The company has a starting inventory in January of 1000 books. At the beginning of January the company has a workforce of 80 employees. The company has a total of 20 working days in each month, and each employee earns Rs 4 per hour regular time. Each employee works eight hours per day on straight time…arrow_forwardThe following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 6. 7 8 10 11 Demand 7 10 4 7 11 8. 12 12 8. 13 8. This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 4 7 10 11 12 Forecast 7 7 7.3 8.6 10.3 10.7 10.7 11 9.6 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.20, 0.35, and 0.45, using 0.45 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Year 4 6. 7 10 11 12 Forecastarrow_forward
- The options Outlook has for handling the seasonality of magazine are adding workers during the peak season, subcontracting out some of the work, building up inventory during the slow months, or building up a backlog of orders that will be delivered late to customers. To determine how to best use these options through an aggregate plan, Outlook`s vice president of Marketing starts with the first task-building a demand forecast. Although Outlook could attempt to forecast this demand itself, a much more accurate forecast comes from a collaborative process used by both Outlook and its retailers to produce the forecast shown in Table (a). Outlook sells each book through retailers for Rs.40. The company has a starting inventory in January of 1000 books. At the beginning of January the company has a workforce of 80 employees. The company has a total of 20 working days in each month, and each employee earns Rs 4 per hour regular time. Each employee works eight hours per day on straight time…arrow_forwardThe following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Year Demand 8 10 5 7 12 8 11 14 8 11 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Forecast c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through (round your responses to two decimal places). 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year 4 Forecast d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2.14 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 2.60. Based on this information, the better forecast is achieved using the approach.arrow_forwardThe following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 10 11 9 12 12 8 13 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 66 7.337.33 8.338.33 1010 10.6610.66 1111 10.6610.66 1111 99 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).arrow_forward
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