EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780135175644
Author: Munson
Publisher: VST
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Chapter 4, Problem 40P
Summary Introduction

To compute: A seasonalized or adjusted sales forecast.

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Since the beginning of the year, the purchase manager at a department store has been recording sales data to be used to compute 4-period moving averages to forecast sales for an upcoming month. Sales data for the months of January through September are reported in the table below. Month January February March April May June July August September Sales 21 20 39 22 29 14 42 28 27 Computed forecast values are not rounded. Compute the four-period moving average forecast for October. value as a whole number by rounding. Specify the Compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAD as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MSE as a whole number by rounding. Compute the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the four-period moving average forecasts. Specify the MAPE as a whole number by rounding. CHECK ANSWER
3) Seasonality: The following data represent dinner sales at a busy restaurant. Use linear regression to predict sales for each day of week 5 and the total sales for week 5. Estimate the percentage of weekly sales that occur over the weekend (include Friday, Saturday, and Sunday). Finally, determine which days of the week are increasing and decreasing in sales, using the slopes of the LR lines. Week Mon Wed Fri Sat Sun Tue 177 170 Thu 190 Total 270 152 180 321 386 166 218 203 402 427 167 333 357 229 3 158 170 170 205 163 173 158 225 349 433 212 a) Graph the seasonal data and attach the graph to this page. b) Determine the slope for each day of the week. Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total Slope c) Estimate the percentage of weekend sales in week 5: d) For which day are sales increasing the fastest? e) For which day are sales decreasing the fastest?
1. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 8. 32 29 9. 10 38 33 34 37 40 37 32 11 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? a. b. C. 123 4 56

Chapter 4 Solutions

EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14DQCh. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - Prob. 16DQCh. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - Prob. 18DQCh. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Prob. 20DQCh. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - Prob. 7PCh. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Prob. 12PCh. 4 - At you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14PCh. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144. a) Use a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 16PCh. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - Prob. 18PCh. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Resolve Problem 4.19 with = .1 and =.8. Using...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Prob. 23PCh. 4 - The following gives the number of accidents that...Ch. 4 - In the past, Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton...Ch. 4 - George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures...Ch. 4 - Attendance at Orlandos newest Disneylike...Ch. 4 - Prob. 28PCh. 4 - The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 30PCh. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.31, forecast...Ch. 4 - Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new...Ch. 4 - Prob. 35PCh. 4 - Prob. 36PCh. 4 - Prob. 37PCh. 4 - Prob. 38PCh. 4 - Prob. 39PCh. 4 - Prob. 40PCh. 4 - Prob. 41PCh. 4 - Prob. 42PCh. 4 - Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument...Ch. 4 - Prob. 44PCh. 4 - Cafe Michigans manager, Gary Stark, suspects that...Ch. 4 - Prob. 46PCh. 4 - The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is...Ch. 4 - Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania, real...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Prob. 50PCh. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.30, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 53PCh. 4 - Dave Fletcher, the general manager of North...Ch. 4 - Prob. 55PCh. 4 - Prob. 56PCh. 4 - Prob. 57PCh. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - Prob. 1.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2VCCh. 4 - Using Perezs multiple-regression model, what would...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.2VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.3VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.5VC
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