EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780135175644
Author: Munson
Publisher: VST
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Chapter 4, Problem 10P
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12.
b) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1.
c) Graph the original data and the two forecasts. Which of the two
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Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
Year
-1
2
Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0
Year
Forecast
4
4.3
This exercise contains only parts a and b.
a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your
responses to one decimal place):
5
4.6
4
3
3.0
5
6
6.6
7
8
4
5 6
9 10
6.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 9.0 13.0 16.0
6
7
8.7
8
9
7
9
8.3
b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2,
and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4
through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place):
Year
Forecast
8
10
9.6
9
11
12.6
10
12
15.3
11
11
17.0
12
Sales of the Crown Gems have been increasing over the past five years. The operations manager has estimated sales in 2017 to be 410 Crown Gems. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, the forecasts for 2017 through 2022 were developed.
The forecasts for 2017 through 2022 is:
Year
Forecast
2016
450
2017
450
2018
463.5
2019
479.85
2021
504.795
2022
528.5565
a. Advise Crown Gems of the benefits associated with this method of forecasting.
b.Caution the manager on the limitations associated with your forecast.
The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks:
Week Of
August 31
September 7
September 14
September 21
September 28
October 5
a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = 373.33 pints (round your response to two decimal places).
b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.20, 0.25, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = 373.3 pints (round your
response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.)
Week Of
Pints Used
360
372
412
c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and x = 0.30, using exponential smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week
of October 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).
August…
Chapter 4 Solutions
EBK PRINCIPLES OF OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 4 - Ethical Dilemma We live in a society obsessed with...Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative forecasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...
Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14DQCh. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - Prob. 16DQCh. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - Prob. 18DQCh. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Prob. 20DQCh. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - Prob. 7PCh. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Prob. 12PCh. 4 - At you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14PCh. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144. a) Use a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 16PCh. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - Prob. 18PCh. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Resolve Problem 4.19 with = .1 and =.8. Using...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Prob. 23PCh. 4 - The following gives the number of accidents that...Ch. 4 - In the past, Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton...Ch. 4 - George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures...Ch. 4 - Attendance at Orlandos newest Disneylike...Ch. 4 - Prob. 28PCh. 4 - The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 30PCh. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.31, forecast...Ch. 4 - Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new...Ch. 4 - Prob. 35PCh. 4 - Prob. 36PCh. 4 - Prob. 37PCh. 4 - Prob. 38PCh. 4 - Prob. 39PCh. 4 - Prob. 40PCh. 4 - Prob. 41PCh. 4 - Prob. 42PCh. 4 - Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument...Ch. 4 - Prob. 44PCh. 4 - Cafe Michigans manager, Gary Stark, suspects that...Ch. 4 - Prob. 46PCh. 4 - The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is...Ch. 4 - Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania, real...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Prob. 50PCh. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.30, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 53PCh. 4 - Dave Fletcher, the general manager of North...Ch. 4 - Prob. 55PCh. 4 - Prob. 56PCh. 4 - Prob. 57PCh. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1CSCh. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Prob. 3CSCh. 4 - Prob. 1.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2VCCh. 4 - Using Perezs multiple-regression model, what would...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.2VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.3VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.4VCCh. 4 - Prob. 2.5VC
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