Gynecology A drug company is developing a new pregnancy-test kit for use on an outpatient basis. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 women who are known to be pregnant, for whom 95 test results are positive. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 other women who are known to not be pregnant, of whom 99 test negative. The company anticipates that of the women who will use the pregnancy-test kit, 10% will actually be pregnant. Suppose the “cost” of a false negative ( 2c ) is twice that of a false positive ( c ) (because for a false negative prenatal care would be delayed during the first trimester of pregnancy). If the standard home pregnancy-test kit (made by another drug company) has a sensitivity of .98 and a specificity of .98, then which test (the new or standard) will cost the least per woman using it in the general population and by how much?
Gynecology A drug company is developing a new pregnancy-test kit for use on an outpatient basis. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 women who are known to be pregnant, for whom 95 test results are positive. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 other women who are known to not be pregnant, of whom 99 test negative. The company anticipates that of the women who will use the pregnancy-test kit, 10% will actually be pregnant. Suppose the “cost” of a false negative ( 2c ) is twice that of a false positive ( c ) (because for a false negative prenatal care would be delayed during the first trimester of pregnancy). If the standard home pregnancy-test kit (made by another drug company) has a sensitivity of .98 and a specificity of .98, then which test (the new or standard) will cost the least per woman using it in the general population and by how much?
Solution Summary: The author calculates the cost of the new or standard test, based on the probability that the symptom is present in the person.
A drug company is developing a new pregnancy-test kit for use on an outpatient basis. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 women who are known to be pregnant, for whom 95 test results are positive. The company uses the pregnancy test on 100 other women who are known to not be pregnant, of whom 99 test negative.
The company anticipates that of the women who will use the pregnancy-test kit, 10% will actually be pregnant.
Suppose the “cost” of a false negative (2c) is twice that of a false positive (c) (because for a false negative prenatal care would be delayed during the first trimester of pregnancy). If the standard home pregnancy-test kit (made by another drug company) has a sensitivity of .98 and a specificity of .98, then which test (the new or standard) will cost the least per woman using it in the general population and by how much?
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Part (b)
Draw a scatter plot of the ordered pairs.
N
Life
Expectancy
Life
Expectancy
80
70
600
50
40
30
20
10
Year of
1950
1970 1990
2010 Birth
O
Life
Expectancy
Part (c)
800
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1950
1970 1990
W
ALT
林
$
#
4
R
J7
Year of
2010 Birth
F6
4+
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Year of
1950 1970 1990
2010 Birth
Life
Expectancy
Ox
800
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Year of
1950 1970 1990 2010 Birth
hp
P.B.
KA
&
7
80
% 5
H
A
B
F10
711
N
M
K
744
PRT SC
ALT
CTRL
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