Operations and Supply Chain Management, 9th Edition WileyPLUS Registration Card + Loose-leaf Print Companion
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119371618
Author: Roberta S. Russell
Publisher: Wiley (WileyPLUS Products)
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Textbook Question
Chapter 14, Problem 35P
Tariott Hotel rents rooms for $125 a night that cost approximately $50 per day to maintain. Overbooking is a common practice in the industry. Customers whose rooms have been leased to someone else are put up in a nearby hotel for $100 a night. Records show that during the past month, there were 10 days with zero no-shows, 5 days with 1 no-show, 6 days with 2 no-shows, and 9 days with 3 no-shows.
- a. What is the cost of overbooking?
- b. What is the cost of underbooking?
- c. What is the optimum probability of no-shows for Tariott?
- d. How many rooms should Tariott overbook?
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 14 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management, 9th Edition WileyPLUS Registration Card + Loose-leaf Print Companion
Ch. 14.S - Prob. 1QCh. 14.S - Prob. 2QCh. 14.S - Prob. 3QCh. 14.S - Prob. 4QCh. 14.S - Prob. 5QCh. 14.S - Prob. 6QCh. 14.S - Prob. 7QCh. 14.S - Prob. 8QCh. 14.S - Prob. 1PCh. 14.S - The Tycron Company produces three electrical...
Ch. 14.S - Prob. 3PCh. 14.S - The Pinewood Cabinet and Furniture Company...Ch. 14.S - The Mystic Coffee Shop blends coffee on the...Ch. 14.S - Prob. 6PCh. 14.S - Prob. 7PCh. 14.S - Prob. 8PCh. 14.S - Prob. 9PCh. 14.S - Prob. 10PCh. 14.S - Prob. 11PCh. 14.S - Prob. 12PCh. 14.S - Prob. 13PCh. 14.S - Prob. 14PCh. 14.S - Prob. 15PCh. 14.S - Prob. 16PCh. 14.S - Prob. 17PCh. 14.S - Prob. 18PCh. 14.S - Prob. 19PCh. 14.S - Prob. 20PCh. 14.S - Prob. 22PCh. 14.S - Prob. 23PCh. 14.S - Prob. 24PCh. 14.S - Prob. 25PCh. 14.S - Prob. 27PCh. 14.S - Prob. 28PCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.2CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.3CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.4CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.5CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.6CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.7CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.8CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 1.9CPCh. 14.S - Prob. 2.1CPCh. 14 - Prob. 1.1ASCCh. 14 - Prob. 1.2ASCCh. 14 - Supply and Demand in the Spirits Industry A...Ch. 14 - Supply and Demand in the Spirits Industry A...Ch. 14 - Supply and Demand in the Spirits Industry A...Ch. 14 - Disneys Magic Numbers Sales and operations...Ch. 14 - Disneys Magic Numbers Sales and operations...Ch. 14 - Prob. 1QCh. 14 - List several alternatives for adjusting capacity....Ch. 14 - Prob. 3QCh. 14 - How do linear programming, the linear decision...Ch. 14 - Prob. 5QCh. 14 - What options are available for altering the...Ch. 14 - Prob. 7QCh. 14 - Prob. 8QCh. 14 - Explain the process of collaborative planning. How...Ch. 14 - Prob. 11QCh. 14 - Prob. 12QCh. 14 - Prob. 1PCh. 14 - Prob. 2PCh. 14 - Prob. 3PCh. 14 - Prob. 4PCh. 14 - Mamas Stuffin is a popular food item during the...Ch. 14 - Prob. 6PCh. 14 - Slopes Sleds (SS) makes skis, snowboards, and...Ch. 14 - Prob. 8PCh. 14 - Midlife Shoes, Inc, is a manufacturer of sensible...Ch. 14 - Design a production plan for Mamas Stuffin in...Ch. 14 - Design a production plan for FansForYou in Problem...Ch. 14 - Prob. 16PCh. 14 - Prob. 17PCh. 14 - Prob. 18PCh. 14 - Prob. 19PCh. 14 - Prob. 20PCh. 14 - Prob. 21PCh. 14 - Prob. 22PCh. 14 - How many units are available-to-promise in period...Ch. 14 - Complete the available-to-promise table below.Ch. 14 - Complete the available-to-promise table below.Ch. 14 - Calculate the available-to-promise row in the...Ch. 14 - Complete the following table. How many Bs are...Ch. 14 - Managers at the Dew Drop Inn are concerned about...Ch. 14 - Prob. 29PCh. 14 - Prob. 30PCh. 14 - Prob. 31PCh. 14 - Prob. 32PCh. 14 - The Forestry Club sells Christmas trees each year...Ch. 14 - Prob. 34PCh. 14 - Tariott Hotel rents rooms for 125 a night that...Ch. 14 - Prob. 36PCh. 14 - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 14 - Prob. 1.2CPCh. 14 - Prob. 1.3CP
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