Chapter 14, Problem 3.1ASC

Disney’s Magic Numbers

Sales and operations planning at Disney World is all about people—how many people visit the parks and what they do while there. The Disney property in Florida includes 4 parks, 20 hotels, 27,500 rooms, 160 miles of roads, and 56,000 employees. Forecasting attendance and guest behavior helps plan for more than 1 billion customer interactions per year, and the purchase of 9 million hamburgers, 50 million Cokes, and tons of “tangible memories.”

Planning begins with a five-year forecast of attendance based on a combination of econometric models, experience-based models, extensive research, and a magic mirror. The econometric model examines the international economies of seven key countries, their GDP growth, foreign exchange rate, and consumer confidence. The experience-based model looks at demographics, planned product introductions, capacity expansions, and marketing strategies. Extensive research is conducted by 35 analysts and 70 field personnel year round. Over 1 million surveys are administered to key household segments, current guests, cast members, and travel industry personnel. The magic mirror is the patented part of the forecasting procedure that, in part, accounts for the mere 5% error in the five-year attendance forecast and the 0% error in annual forecasts.

Disney’s five-year plan is converted to an annual operating plan (AOP) for each park. Demand is highly seasonal and varies by month and day of the week. Economic conditions affect annual plans, as do history and holidays, school calendars, societal behavior, and sales promotions. The AOP is updated monthly with information from airline specials, hotel bookings, recent forecast accuracies, website monitoring, and competitive influences. A daily forecast of attendance is made by tweaking the AOP and adjusting for monthly variations, weather forecasts, and the previous day’s crowds. Attendance drives all other decisions.

Disney is a master at adjusting its capacity and managing its demand. Capacity can be increased by lengthening park hours, opening more rides or shows, adding roving food and beverage carts, and deploying more “cast members.” To maintain flexibility, cast members are scheduled in 15-minute intervals at various jobs throughout the park. Demand is managed by limiting access to the park, shifting crowds to street activities, taking reservations for attractions, and notifying patrons when room becomes available. Operating standards strictly regulate when these actions are taken. Obsessive collection of data ensures the response is timely.

© Helen Sessions/Alamy Stock Photo

The collection of data is easier and more timely with a new vacation management system implemented by Disney, called My Magic+. The system transforms how visitors navigate the park, and hopefully provides them with a better customer experience. It also provides Disney with more consumer behavior information on which to make decisions. Each guest is issued a rubber bracelet (the MagicBand) equipped with RFID tags (see photo). The MagicBands contain ticket information, credit card information, contact information, and other personal information, as allowed, as well as fast passes and updated information on the guest’s interactions during their day at the park. Turnstiles throughout the park are replaced by bracelet readers, stores will soon no longer take cash, and, if activated, a child’s name, birthday, and other information can be relayed to park staff so that interaction with costumed characters can really be magical. Lines are virtually eliminated with visitors “pinged” when it’s their time for a particular ride or attraction, or when they pass by an attraction on their preferred list that has empty seats.

Comment on the extensiveness of Disney’s planning process and its ability to react to updated data during the course of a day. What other types of industries could benefit from this flexible type of planning?