Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781305627734
Author: Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 8, Problem 4P

Consider the following time series data:

Chapter 8, Problem 4P, Consider the following time series data:

Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast

  1. a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
  2. b. Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8?
  3. c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
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1 (Expected Shortfall) Suppose the price of an asset Pt follows a normal random walk, i.e., Pt = Po+r₁ + ... + rt with r₁, r2,... being IID N(μ, o²). Po+r1+. ⚫ Suppose the VaR of rt is VaRq(rt) at level q, find the VaR of the price in T days, i.e., VaRq(Pt – Pt–T). - • If ESq(rt) = A, find ES₁(Pt – Pt–T).
2 (Normal Distribution) Let rt be a log return. Suppose that r₁, 2, ... are IID N(0.06, 0.47). What is the distribution of rt (4) = rt + rt-1 + rt-2 + rt-3? What is P(rt (4) < 2)? What is the covariance between r2(2) = 1 + 12 and 13(2) = r² + 13? • What is the conditional distribution of r₁(3) = rt + rt-1 + rt-2 given rt-2 = 0.6?

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Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)

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