Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781305627734
Author: Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 8, Problem 5P

Consider the following time series data:

Chapter 8, Problem 5P, Consider the following time series data:

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists

  1. a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
  2. b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
  3. c. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
  4. d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
  5. e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
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Consider the following time series data. Week 1   2  3  4  5  6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14   Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and forecast for week 7.
For the Texas Shipping Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 82, 86, 87, 89, 84, 85, 84, 86, 75, 95, 90, and 92. a. Construct a time series plot (you can include it in the work file question at the end, not here). Identify what type of pattern, if any, exists in the data? Compare the three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for alpha= 0.25 and answer the following: b. MSE for 3-month moving average method c. MSE for exponential-smoothing method : d. Which method should be preferred? Answer "3-month MA" or "Exponential Smoothing": e. What is the forecast for next month using the preferred method?
consider the following time series data.Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?a. develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. compute MSeand a forecast for week 8.b. Use a = .2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. compute MSe and a forecast for week 8.c. compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using a = .2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSe?d. Use a smoothing constant of a = .4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts.does a smoothing constant of .2 or .4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts basedon MSe? explain

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