Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Question
Chapter 1.S, Problem 34P
a)
Summary Introduction
To determine: The best decision using expected value approach.
Introduction: Expected value approach is commonly used approach in the decision analysis. It is determined by evaluating the product of payoff of each action with the occurrence of each action. It considers the importance of each event along with the given occurrences of the event.
b)
Summary Introduction
To determine: The best decision using Equal likelihood criteria.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives adn various levels of demand at Robert Klassan's print shop:
decision low high
alt 1 $10,000 $36,000
alt 2 $6,000 $38,000
alt 3 -$2500 $52,000
The probability of low demand is 0.40 whereas the probability of high demand is 0.60.
a) The alternative that provides Robert the greatest expected monetary value is _________
The EMV for this decision is $_______
b) The expected value with perfect information (EVwPI)= $______
c) The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for Robert= $________
Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is
considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table:
Alternatives
Favorable Market
Unfavorable Market
Build large plant
$400,000
−$300,000
Build small plant
$120,000
−$15,000
Don't Build
$0
$0
Market Probability
0.40
0.60
a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in
Figure ____
(all
payoffs are in
thousands).
b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______
.
c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) =
$___________
(enter your answer as a whole num
Mickey Lawson is considering investing some money that he inherited.
The following payoff table gives the profit that would be realized during the next year for each of three investments alternatives Mickey is considering:
State of Nature
Decision alternatives Good Economy Poor Economy
Stock market 80,000 -20,000
Bonds 30,000 20,000
CDs 23,000 23,000
Probability 0.5 0.5
Compute decision would maximize expected profits.
Compute the maximum amount that should be paid for a perfect forecast of the economy.
Chapter 1 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 1.S - Prob. 1PCh. 1.S - Prob. 2PCh. 1.S - Prob. 3PCh. 1.S - Prob. 4PCh. 1.S - Prob. 5PCh. 1.S - In Problem S1-5 assume that Nicole, with the help...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 7PCh. 1.S - Prob. 8PCh. 1.S - Telecomp, a computer manufacturer with a global...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 10P
Ch. 1.S - Prob. 11PCh. 1.S - Prob. 12PCh. 1.S - Prob. 13PCh. 1.S - Prob. 14PCh. 1.S - Prob. 15PCh. 1.S - Prob. 16PCh. 1.S - Prob. 17PCh. 1.S - Prob. 18PCh. 1.S - In Problem S1-18, assume the Weight Club is able...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 20PCh. 1.S - Prob. 21PCh. 1.S - Prob. 22PCh. 1.S - Prob. 23PCh. 1.S - Prob. 24PCh. 1.S - Prob. 25PCh. 1.S - Prob. 26PCh. 1.S - Prob. 27PCh. 1.S - Prob. 28PCh. 1.S - Prob. 29PCh. 1.S - Prob. 30PCh. 1.S - Prob. 31PCh. 1.S - Prob. 33PCh. 1.S - Prob. 34PCh. 1.S - Alex Mason has a wide-curving, uphill driveway...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 36PCh. 1.S - Prob. 39PCh. 1.S - Prob. 40PCh. 1.S - State University has three healthcare plans for...Ch. 1.S - The Orchard Wine Company purchases grapes from one...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 43PCh. 1.S - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 1.S - Prob. 2.1CPCh. 1.S - Evaluating Projects at Nexcom Systems Nexcom...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1QCh. 1 - What constitutes operations at (a) a bank, (b) a...Ch. 1 - Prob. 3QCh. 1 - Prob. 4QCh. 1 - Prob. 5QCh. 1 - Prob. 17QCh. 1 - What is the difference between an order winner and...Ch. 1 - Prob. 21QCh. 1 - Prob. 22QCh. 1 - Prob. 23QCh. 1 - Prob. 24QCh. 1 - Prob. 1PCh. 1 - Prob. 2PCh. 1 - Prob. 3PCh. 1 - Prob. 4PCh. 1 - Prob. 5PCh. 1 - Omar Industries maintains production facilities in...Ch. 1 - Rushing yardage for three Heisman Trophy...Ch. 1 - Carpet City recorded the following data on carpet...Ch. 1 - Prob. 9PCh. 1 - Prob. 10PCh. 1 - Prob. 11PCh. 1 - Prob. 12PCh. 1 - Prob. 13PCh. 1 - Prob. 14PCh. 1 - Prob. 15PCh. 1 - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.2CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.3CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.4CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.5CPCh. 1 - Prob. 2.1CPCh. 1 - Prob. 2.2CP
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- The Global Sourcing Wire Harness Decision Sheila Austin, a buyer at Autolink, a Detroit-based producer of subassemblies for the automotive market, has sent out requests for quotations for a wiring harness to four prospective suppliers. Only two of the four suppliers indicated an interest in quoting the business: Original Wire (Auburn Hills, MI) and Happy Lucky Assemblies (HLA) of Guangdong Province, China. The estimated demand for the harnesses is 5,000 units a month. Both suppliers will incur some costs to retool for this particular harness. The harnesses will be prepackaged in 24 12 6-inch cartons. Each packaged unit weighs approximately 10 pounds. Quote 1 The first quote received is from Original Wire. Auburn Hills is about 20 miles from Autolinks corporate headquarters, so the quote was delivered in person. When Sheila went down to the lobby, she was greeted by the sales agent and an engineering representative. After the quote was handed over, the sales agent noted that engineering would be happy to work closely with Autolink in developing the unit and would also be interested in future business that might involve finding ways to reduce costs. The sales agent also noted that they were hungry for business, as they were losing a lot of customers to companies from China. The quote included unit price, tooling, and packaging. The quoted unit price does not include shipping costs. Original Wire requires no special warehousing of inventory, and daily deliveries from its manufacturing site directly to Autolinks assembly operations are possible. Original Wire Quote: Unit price = 30 Packing costs = 0.75 per unit Tooling = 6,000 one-time fixed charge Freight cost = 5.20 per hundred pounds Quote 2 The second quote received is from Happy Lucky Assemblies of Guangdong Province, China. The supplier must pack the harnesses in a container and ship via inland transportation to the port of Shanghai in China, have the shipment transferred to a container ship, ship material to Seattle, and then have material transported inland to Detroit. The quoted unit price does not include international shipping costs, which the buyer will assume. HLA Quote: Unit price = 19.50 Shipping lead time = Eight weeks Tooling = 3,000 In addition to the suppliers quote, Sheila must consider additional costs and information before preparing a comparison of the Chinese suppliers quotation: Each monthly shipment requires three 40-foot containers. Packing costs for containerization = 2 per unit. Cost of inland transportation to port of export = 200 per container. Freight forwarders fee = 100 per shipment (letter of credit, documentation, etc.). Cost of ocean transport = 4,000 per container. This has risen significantly in recent years due to a shortage of ocean freight capacity. Marine insurance = 0.50 per 100 of shipment. U.S. port handling charges = 1,200 per container. This fee has also risen considerably this year, due to increased security. Ports have also been complaining that the charges may increase in the future. Customs duty = 5% of unit cost. Customs broker fees per shipment = 300. Transportation from Seattle to Detroit = 18.60 per hundred pounds. Need to warehouse at least four weeks of inventory in Detroit at a warehousing cost of 1.00 per cubic foot per month, to compensate for lead time uncertainty. Sheila must also figure the costs associated with committing corporate capital for holding inventory. She has spoken to some accountants, who typically use a corporate cost of capital rate of 15%. Cost of hedging currencybroker fees = 400 per shipment Additional administrative time due to international shipping = 4 hours per shipment 25 per hour (estimated) At least two five-day visits per year to travel to China to meet with supplier and provide updates on performance and shipping = 20,000 per year (estimated) The international sourcing costs must be absorbed by Sheila, as the supplier does not assume any of the additional estimated costs and invoice Sheila later, or build the costs into a revised unit price. Sheila feels that the U.S. supplier is probably less expensive, even though it quoted a higher price. Sheila also knows that this is a standard technology that is unlikely to change during the next three years, but which could be a contract that extends multiple years out. There is also a lot of hall talk amongst the engineers on her floor about next-generation automotive electronics, which will completely eliminate the need for wire harnesses, which will be replaced by electronic components that are smaller, lighter, and more reliable. She is unsure about how to calculate the total costs for each option, and she is even more unsure about how to factor these other variables into the decision. Calculate the total cost per unit of purchasing from Original Wire.arrow_forwardThe Global Sourcing Wire Harness Decision Sheila Austin, a buyer at Autolink, a Detroit-based producer of subassemblies for the automotive market, has sent out requests for quotations for a wiring harness to four prospective suppliers. Only two of the four suppliers indicated an interest in quoting the business: Original Wire (Auburn Hills, MI) and Happy Lucky Assemblies (HLA) of Guangdong Province, China. The estimated demand for the harnesses is 5,000 units a month. Both suppliers will incur some costs to retool for this particular harness. The harnesses will be prepackaged in 24 12 6-inch cartons. Each packaged unit weighs approximately 10 pounds. Quote 1 The first quote received is from Original Wire. Auburn Hills is about 20 miles from Autolinks corporate headquarters, so the quote was delivered in person. When Sheila went down to the lobby, she was greeted by the sales agent and an engineering representative. After the quote was handed over, the sales agent noted that engineering would be happy to work closely with Autolink in developing the unit and would also be interested in future business that might involve finding ways to reduce costs. The sales agent also noted that they were hungry for business, as they were losing a lot of customers to companies from China. The quote included unit price, tooling, and packaging. The quoted unit price does not include shipping costs. Original Wire requires no special warehousing of inventory, and daily deliveries from its manufacturing site directly to Autolinks assembly operations are possible. Original Wire Quote: Unit price = 30 Packing costs = 0.75 per unit Tooling = 6,000 one-time fixed charge Freight cost = 5.20 per hundred pounds Quote 2 The second quote received is from Happy Lucky Assemblies of Guangdong Province, China. The supplier must pack the harnesses in a container and ship via inland transportation to the port of Shanghai in China, have the shipment transferred to a container ship, ship material to Seattle, and then have material transported inland to Detroit. The quoted unit price does not include international shipping costs, which the buyer will assume. HLA Quote: Unit price = 19.50 Shipping lead time = Eight weeks Tooling = 3,000 In addition to the suppliers quote, Sheila must consider additional costs and information before preparing a comparison of the Chinese suppliers quotation: Each monthly shipment requires three 40-foot containers. Packing costs for containerization = 2 per unit. Cost of inland transportation to port of export = 200 per container. Freight forwarders fee = 100 per shipment (letter of credit, documentation, etc.). Cost of ocean transport = 4,000 per container. This has risen significantly in recent years due to a shortage of ocean freight capacity. Marine insurance = 0.50 per 100 of shipment. U.S. port handling charges = 1,200 per container. This fee has also risen considerably this year, due to increased security. Ports have also been complaining that the charges may increase in the future. Customs duty = 5% of unit cost. Customs broker fees per shipment = 300. Transportation from Seattle to Detroit = 18.60 per hundred pounds. Need to warehouse at least four weeks of inventory in Detroit at a warehousing cost of 1.00 per cubic foot per month, to compensate for lead time uncertainty. Sheila must also figure the costs associated with committing corporate capital for holding inventory. She has spoken to some accountants, who typically use a corporate cost of capital rate of 15%. Cost of hedging currencybroker fees = 400 per shipment Additional administrative time due to international shipping = 4 hours per shipment 25 per hour (estimated) At least two five-day visits per year to travel to China to meet with supplier and provide updates on performance and shipping = 20,000 per year (estimated) The international sourcing costs must be absorbed by Sheila, as the supplier does not assume any of the additional estimated costs and invoice Sheila later, or build the costs into a revised unit price. Sheila feels that the U.S. supplier is probably less expensive, even though it quoted a higher price. Sheila also knows that this is a standard technology that is unlikely to change during the next three years, but which could be a contract that extends multiple years out. There is also a lot of hall talk amongst the engineers on her floor about next-generation automotive electronics, which will completely eliminate the need for wire harnesses, which will be replaced by electronic components that are smaller, lighter, and more reliable. She is unsure about how to calculate the total costs for each option, and she is even more unsure about how to factor these other variables into the decision. Calculate the total cost per unit of purchasing from Happy Lucky Assemblies.arrow_forwardThe Global Sourcing Wire Harness Decision Sheila Austin, a buyer at Autolink, a Detroit-based producer of subassemblies for the automotive market, has sent out requests for quotations for a wiring harness to four prospective suppliers. Only two of the four suppliers indicated an interest in quoting the business: Original Wire (Auburn Hills, MI) and Happy Lucky Assemblies (HLA) of Guangdong Province, China. The estimated demand for the harnesses is 5,000 units a month. Both suppliers will incur some costs to retool for this particular harness. The harnesses will be prepackaged in 24 12 6-inch cartons. Each packaged unit weighs approximately 10 pounds. Quote 1 The first quote received is from Original Wire. Auburn Hills is about 20 miles from Autolinks corporate headquarters, so the quote was delivered in person. When Sheila went down to the lobby, she was greeted by the sales agent and an engineering representative. After the quote was handed over, the sales agent noted that engineering would be happy to work closely with Autolink in developing the unit and would also be interested in future business that might involve finding ways to reduce costs. The sales agent also noted that they were hungry for business, as they were losing a lot of customers to companies from China. The quote included unit price, tooling, and packaging. The quoted unit price does not include shipping costs. Original Wire requires no special warehousing of inventory, and daily deliveries from its manufacturing site directly to Autolinks assembly operations are possible. Original Wire Quote: Unit price = 30 Packing costs = 0.75 per unit Tooling = 6,000 one-time fixed charge Freight cost = 5.20 per hundred pounds Quote 2 The second quote received is from Happy Lucky Assemblies of Guangdong Province, China. The supplier must pack the harnesses in a container and ship via inland transportation to the port of Shanghai in China, have the shipment transferred to a container ship, ship material to Seattle, and then have material transported inland to Detroit. The quoted unit price does not include international shipping costs, which the buyer will assume. HLA Quote: Unit price = 19.50 Shipping lead time = Eight weeks Tooling = 3,000 In addition to the suppliers quote, Sheila must consider additional costs and information before preparing a comparison of the Chinese suppliers quotation: Each monthly shipment requires three 40-foot containers. Packing costs for containerization = 2 per unit. Cost of inland transportation to port of export = 200 per container. Freight forwarders fee = 100 per shipment (letter of credit, documentation, etc.). Cost of ocean transport = 4,000 per container. This has risen significantly in recent years due to a shortage of ocean freight capacity. Marine insurance = 0.50 per 100 of shipment. U.S. port handling charges = 1,200 per container. This fee has also risen considerably this year, due to increased security. Ports have also been complaining that the charges may increase in the future. Customs duty = 5% of unit cost. Customs broker fees per shipment = 300. Transportation from Seattle to Detroit = 18.60 per hundred pounds. Need to warehouse at least four weeks of inventory in Detroit at a warehousing cost of 1.00 per cubic foot per month, to compensate for lead time uncertainty. Sheila must also figure the costs associated with committing corporate capital for holding inventory. She has spoken to some accountants, who typically use a corporate cost of capital rate of 15%. Cost of hedging currencybroker fees = 400 per shipment Additional administrative time due to international shipping = 4 hours per shipment 25 per hour (estimated) At least two five-day visits per year to travel to China to meet with supplier and provide updates on performance and shipping = 20,000 per year (estimated) The international sourcing costs must be absorbed by Sheila, as the supplier does not assume any of the additional estimated costs and invoice Sheila later, or build the costs into a revised unit price. Sheila feels that the U.S. supplier is probably less expensive, even though it quoted a higher price. Sheila also knows that this is a standard technology that is unlikely to change during the next three years, but which could be a contract that extends multiple years out. There is also a lot of hall talk amongst the engineers on her floor about next-generation automotive electronics, which will completely eliminate the need for wire harnesses, which will be replaced by electronic components that are smaller, lighter, and more reliable. She is unsure about how to calculate the total costs for each option, and she is even more unsure about how to factor these other variables into the decision. Based on the total cost per unit, which supplier should Sheila recommend?arrow_forward
- The Global Sourcing Wire Harness Decision Sheila Austin, a buyer at Autolink, a Detroit-based producer of subassemblies for the automotive market, has sent out requests for quotations for a wiring harness to four prospective suppliers. Only two of the four suppliers indicated an interest in quoting the business: Original Wire (Auburn Hills, MI) and Happy Lucky Assemblies (HLA) of Guangdong Province, China. The estimated demand for the harnesses is 5,000 units a month. Both suppliers will incur some costs to retool for this particular harness. The harnesses will be prepackaged in 24 12 6-inch cartons. Each packaged unit weighs approximately 10 pounds. Quote 1 The first quote received is from Original Wire. Auburn Hills is about 20 miles from Autolinks corporate headquarters, so the quote was delivered in person. When Sheila went down to the lobby, she was greeted by the sales agent and an engineering representative. After the quote was handed over, the sales agent noted that engineering would be happy to work closely with Autolink in developing the unit and would also be interested in future business that might involve finding ways to reduce costs. The sales agent also noted that they were hungry for business, as they were losing a lot of customers to companies from China. The quote included unit price, tooling, and packaging. The quoted unit price does not include shipping costs. Original Wire requires no special warehousing of inventory, and daily deliveries from its manufacturing site directly to Autolinks assembly operations are possible. Original Wire Quote: Unit price = 30 Packing costs = 0.75 per unit Tooling = 6,000 one-time fixed charge Freight cost = 5.20 per hundred pounds Quote 2 The second quote received is from Happy Lucky Assemblies of Guangdong Province, China. The supplier must pack the harnesses in a container and ship via inland transportation to the port of Shanghai in China, have the shipment transferred to a container ship, ship material to Seattle, and then have material transported inland to Detroit. The quoted unit price does not include international shipping costs, which the buyer will assume. HLA Quote: Unit price = 19.50 Shipping lead time = Eight weeks Tooling = 3,000 In addition to the suppliers quote, Sheila must consider additional costs and information before preparing a comparison of the Chinese suppliers quotation: Each monthly shipment requires three 40-foot containers. Packing costs for containerization = 2 per unit. Cost of inland transportation to port of export = 200 per container. Freight forwarders fee = 100 per shipment (letter of credit, documentation, etc.). Cost of ocean transport = 4,000 per container. This has risen significantly in recent years due to a shortage of ocean freight capacity. Marine insurance = 0.50 per 100 of shipment. U.S. port handling charges = 1,200 per container. This fee has also risen considerably this year, due to increased security. Ports have also been complaining that the charges may increase in the future. Customs duty = 5% of unit cost. Customs broker fees per shipment = 300. Transportation from Seattle to Detroit = 18.60 per hundred pounds. Need to warehouse at least four weeks of inventory in Detroit at a warehousing cost of 1.00 per cubic foot per month, to compensate for lead time uncertainty. Sheila must also figure the costs associated with committing corporate capital for holding inventory. She has spoken to some accountants, who typically use a corporate cost of capital rate of 15%. Cost of hedging currencybroker fees = 400 per shipment Additional administrative time due to international shipping = 4 hours per shipment 25 per hour (estimated) At least two five-day visits per year to travel to China to meet with supplier and provide updates on performance and shipping = 20,000 per year (estimated) The international sourcing costs must be absorbed by Sheila, as the supplier does not assume any of the additional estimated costs and invoice Sheila later, or build the costs into a revised unit price. Sheila feels that the U.S. supplier is probably less expensive, even though it quoted a higher price. Sheila also knows that this is a standard technology that is unlikely to change during the next three years, but which could be a contract that extends multiple years out. There is also a lot of hall talk amongst the engineers on her floor about next-generation automotive electronics, which will completely eliminate the need for wire harnesses, which will be replaced by electronic components that are smaller, lighter, and more reliable. She is unsure about how to calculate the total costs for each option, and she is even more unsure about how to factor these other variables into the decision. Are there any other issues besides cost that Sheila should evaluate?arrow_forwardThe Global Sourcing Wire Harness Decision Sheila Austin, a buyer at Autolink, a Detroit-based producer of subassemblies for the automotive market, has sent out requests for quotations for a wiring harness to four prospective suppliers. Only two of the four suppliers indicated an interest in quoting the business: Original Wire (Auburn Hills, MI) and Happy Lucky Assemblies (HLA) of Guangdong Province, China. The estimated demand for the harnesses is 5,000 units a month. Both suppliers will incur some costs to retool for this particular harness. The harnesses will be prepackaged in 24 12 6-inch cartons. Each packaged unit weighs approximately 10 pounds. Quote 1 The first quote received is from Original Wire. Auburn Hills is about 20 miles from Autolinks corporate headquarters, so the quote was delivered in person. When Sheila went down to the lobby, she was greeted by the sales agent and an engineering representative. After the quote was handed over, the sales agent noted that engineering would be happy to work closely with Autolink in developing the unit and would also be interested in future business that might involve finding ways to reduce costs. The sales agent also noted that they were hungry for business, as they were losing a lot of customers to companies from China. The quote included unit price, tooling, and packaging. The quoted unit price does not include shipping costs. Original Wire requires no special warehousing of inventory, and daily deliveries from its manufacturing site directly to Autolinks assembly operations are possible. Original Wire Quote: Unit price = 30 Packing costs = 0.75 per unit Tooling = 6,000 one-time fixed charge Freight cost = 5.20 per hundred pounds Quote 2 The second quote received is from Happy Lucky Assemblies of Guangdong Province, China. The supplier must pack the harnesses in a container and ship via inland transportation to the port of Shanghai in China, have the shipment transferred to a container ship, ship material to Seattle, and then have material transported inland to Detroit. The quoted unit price does not include international shipping costs, which the buyer will assume. HLA Quote: Unit price = 19.50 Shipping lead time = Eight weeks Tooling = 3,000 In addition to the suppliers quote, Sheila must consider additional costs and information before preparing a comparison of the Chinese suppliers quotation: Each monthly shipment requires three 40-foot containers. Packing costs for containerization = 2 per unit. Cost of inland transportation to port of export = 200 per container. Freight forwarders fee = 100 per shipment (letter of credit, documentation, etc.). Cost of ocean transport = 4,000 per container. This has risen significantly in recent years due to a shortage of ocean freight capacity. Marine insurance = 0.50 per 100 of shipment. U.S. port handling charges = 1,200 per container. This fee has also risen considerably this year, due to increased security. Ports have also been complaining that the charges may increase in the future. Customs duty = 5% of unit cost. Customs broker fees per shipment = 300. Transportation from Seattle to Detroit = 18.60 per hundred pounds. Need to warehouse at least four weeks of inventory in Detroit at a warehousing cost of 1.00 per cubic foot per month, to compensate for lead time uncertainty. Sheila must also figure the costs associated with committing corporate capital for holding inventory. She has spoken to some accountants, who typically use a corporate cost of capital rate of 15%. Cost of hedging currencybroker fees = 400 per shipment Additional administrative time due to international shipping = 4 hours per shipment 25 per hour (estimated) At least two five-day visits per year to travel to China to meet with supplier and provide updates on performance and shipping = 20,000 per year (estimated) The international sourcing costs must be absorbed by Sheila, as the supplier does not assume any of the additional estimated costs and invoice Sheila later, or build the costs into a revised unit price. Sheila feels that the U.S. supplier is probably less expensive, even though it quoted a higher price. Sheila also knows that this is a standard technology that is unlikely to change during the next three years, but which could be a contract that extends multiple years out. There is also a lot of hall talk amongst the engineers on her floor about next-generation automotive electronics, which will completely eliminate the need for wire harnesses, which will be replaced by electronic components that are smaller, lighter, and more reliable. She is unsure about how to calculate the total costs for each option, and she is even more unsure about how to factor these other variables into the decision. Based on this case, do you think international purchasing is more or less complex than domestic purchasing? Why? Is it worth the additional effort?arrow_forwardA landowner is considering a community development project. Even though he realizes that the current market for housing is not very favourable, he believes that there will be an influx of retirees into the area within the next five years. He is trying to decide between two alternatives: (1) building detached homes in a planned retirement community or (2) building a smaller townhouse/condominium complex. Mortgage interest rates will affect his outcomes as shown (in $ millions) in the accompanying payoff table. According to the maximax approach, what should the landowner do? Click the icon to view the payoff table. ..... A. Build townhouses/condominiums B. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go up, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums C. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community D. Build detached homes in a planned retirement community if interest rates go down, otherwise build townhouses/condominiums O E. Build detached homes in a…arrow_forward
- Determine the best crop to plant, using the following decision criteria: a) Maximax b) Maximin c) Minimax Regret d) Hurwicz (alpha = 0.30) e) Equal Likelihood f) What coefficient of pessimism should a farmer have so that he is indifferent on his decision to either plant corn or peanuts?arrow_forwardThe owner of the Party City Toronto Company must decide among building a mega centre store, building 5 new stores, or leasing 10 of their locations to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable, increase moderately, or increase significantly. In the payoff table below the estimated profits/losses are given in $thousands. Material Costs Stable Mega Centre Decision New Stores Leasing Determine the best decision using the Maximax decision criterion. 2130 Moderate Increase 1850 840 530 1050 940 O Decision: Mega Centre based on 2470 = max(2470,1850,1040) O Decision: Mega Centre based on 2130 = max(2130,1850,1040) Decision: Stable based on 2130 = max(2130,1050,1040) O Decision: Leasing based on 2820 = max(190,2750,2820) Significant Increase -2470 -150 1040arrow_forwardA manufacturing company plans to expand their production and logistics facility into one of the countries listed in the following table. The cost of building such facilities in each country differ based on the state of its economic and political climate. Three cost estimates were made per country in million dollars. a. What is the best decision alternative using MAXIMAX CRITERION and its cost? b. What is the best decision alternative if it is EQUAL LIKELIHOOD? c. What is the best decision alternative using MAXIMIN CRITERION and its cost? d. What is the best decision alternative using MINIMAX REGRET decision criterion? e. What is the best decision alternative using criterion of realism at alpha = 0.8?arrow_forward
- Solve the following decision tree and create risk profiles and cumulative risk profiles for the alternatives defined by the original decision “A” and “B” using precisionTree. Which alternative is preferred? Explain.arrow_forwardhelp me answer this question plsarrow_forwardA soft drink company is considering launching a ‘seasonal soda’ that will be sold for a limited duration. They are considering selling the new soda X-Mist during the upcoming summer season. The company believes, based on its limited market analysis, that there is a 0.75 probability that X-Mist will have a successful summer season and have estimated that they will receive a profit of $4 million if it is successful. If X-Mist is not successful over the summer season, the company will incur a loss of $900,000. The firm Market-Strategies can do an extensive market analysis for a fee of $35,000. Market-Strategies has demonstrated that it is 90 percent reliable in its market analysis for soft drinks, i.e., a soda that will be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Successful’ by Market-Strategies with a probability 0.9 and a soda that will not be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Fail’ by Market-Strategies with a probability of 0.9. The soft drink company must decide…arrow_forward
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