Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 1.S, Problem 13P
Summary Introduction
To draw: The expected value of each decision and the expected value of perfect information.
Introduction: Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
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9.
A decision-maker has two alternative courses of action,
A1
and
A2.
There are three possible states of nature,
S1,
S2,
and
S3.
The table of conditional profits, as well as the probabilities for the states of nature, appear below. Based on this decision table, which decision alternative produces the higher EMV?
States of Nature
Alternatives
S1
S2
S3
A1
10,000
20,000
6,000
A2
5,000
30,000
15,000
Probability
0.3
0.5
0.2
Part 2
The best decision is
▼
a. alternative Upper A 1alternative A1
b. alternative Upper A 2alternative A2
,
with an
EMV=$________(enter your response as a whole number).
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars):
State of Nature
Low Demand
Medium Demand
High Demand
Decision Alternative
s1
s2
s3
Manufacture, d1
-20
40
100
Purchase, d2
10
45
70
The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30.
Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision:
Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3
A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:
P(F | s1) = 0.10
P(U | s1) = 0.90
P(F | s2) = 0.40
P(U |…
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature.
States of Nature
Decision
Alternative
$1
52
53
d1
d2
240
90
15
90
90
65
Suppose that the decision maker obtained the probabilities P(s₁) = 0.65, P(s2) = 0.15, and P(S3) = 0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision.
EV(d₁)
EV(d2)
=
=
The optimal decision is --?--✓
Chapter 1 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 1.S - Prob. 1PCh. 1.S - Prob. 2PCh. 1.S - Prob. 3PCh. 1.S - Prob. 4PCh. 1.S - Prob. 5PCh. 1.S - In Problem S1-5 assume that Nicole, with the help...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 7PCh. 1.S - Prob. 8PCh. 1.S - Telecomp, a computer manufacturer with a global...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 10P
Ch. 1.S - Prob. 11PCh. 1.S - Prob. 12PCh. 1.S - Prob. 13PCh. 1.S - Prob. 14PCh. 1.S - Prob. 15PCh. 1.S - Prob. 16PCh. 1.S - Prob. 17PCh. 1.S - Prob. 18PCh. 1.S - In Problem S1-18, assume the Weight Club is able...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 20PCh. 1.S - Prob. 21PCh. 1.S - Prob. 22PCh. 1.S - Prob. 23PCh. 1.S - Prob. 24PCh. 1.S - Prob. 25PCh. 1.S - Prob. 26PCh. 1.S - Prob. 27PCh. 1.S - Prob. 28PCh. 1.S - Prob. 29PCh. 1.S - Prob. 30PCh. 1.S - Prob. 31PCh. 1.S - Prob. 33PCh. 1.S - Prob. 34PCh. 1.S - Alex Mason has a wide-curving, uphill driveway...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 36PCh. 1.S - Prob. 39PCh. 1.S - Prob. 40PCh. 1.S - State University has three healthcare plans for...Ch. 1.S - The Orchard Wine Company purchases grapes from one...Ch. 1.S - Prob. 43PCh. 1.S - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 1.S - Prob. 2.1CPCh. 1.S - Evaluating Projects at Nexcom Systems Nexcom...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Feeding America Each year, the Feeding America...Ch. 1 - Prob. 1QCh. 1 - What constitutes operations at (a) a bank, (b) a...Ch. 1 - Prob. 3QCh. 1 - Prob. 4QCh. 1 - Prob. 5QCh. 1 - Prob. 17QCh. 1 - What is the difference between an order winner and...Ch. 1 - Prob. 21QCh. 1 - Prob. 22QCh. 1 - Prob. 23QCh. 1 - Prob. 24QCh. 1 - Prob. 1PCh. 1 - Prob. 2PCh. 1 - Prob. 3PCh. 1 - Prob. 4PCh. 1 - Prob. 5PCh. 1 - Omar Industries maintains production facilities in...Ch. 1 - Rushing yardage for three Heisman Trophy...Ch. 1 - Carpet City recorded the following data on carpet...Ch. 1 - Prob. 9PCh. 1 - Prob. 10PCh. 1 - Prob. 11PCh. 1 - Prob. 12PCh. 1 - Prob. 13PCh. 1 - Prob. 14PCh. 1 - Prob. 15PCh. 1 - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.2CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.3CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.4CPCh. 1 - Prob. 1.5CPCh. 1 - Prob. 2.1CPCh. 1 - Prob. 2.2CP
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