Concept explainers
a)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
b)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
c)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionChapter 1 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
- The owner of the Columbia Construction Company must decide between building a housing development, constructing a shopping center, and leasing all the company’s equipment to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable or increase. The profit from each alternative, given the two possibilities for material costs, is shown in the following payoff table: Material Costs Decision Stable Increase Houses $70,000 $30,000 Shopping center 105,000 20,000 Leasing 40,000 40,000 Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz e. Equal likelihoodarrow_forwardA manager is deciding whether to build a small or a large facility. Much depends on the future demand that the facility must serve, and demand may be small or large. The manager knows with certainty the payoffs that will result under each alternative, shown in the following payoff table. The payoffs (in $000) are the present values of future revenues minus costs for each alternative in each event. Possible Future DemandAlternative Low HighSmall facility 200 270Large facility 160 800Do nothing 0 0What is the best choice if future demand will be low?arrow_forwardAPC industries has been experiencing significant growth and has been having difficulty meeting customer demands recently. They are considering three options to address this issue. They can move to a larger facility, add a second shift or use a subcontractor to assist in production. The annual payoff of each option depends on if the current market continues to expand hold s steady or declines. The expected payoff for each combination is shown in the table below Option Expand Steady Decline Move to larger facility 250,000 125,000 -90,000 Add a second shift 175,000 80,000 -45,000 Subcontract 90,000 15,000 -10,000 Which option should APC choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.5? Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should she choose? After reading about economic predictions, APC has assigned the probability that the market will be expanded, or be steady or be weak at 20%, 50%, and 30 %. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen, and what…arrow_forward
- Ellie Daniels has $200,000 and is considering three mutual funds for investment—a global fund, an index fund, and an Internet stock fund. During the first year of investment, Ellie estimates that there is a .70 probability that the market will go up and a .30 probability that the market will go down. Following are the returns on her $200,000 investment at the end of the year under each market condition: Market Conditions Fund Up Down Global $25,000 $ -8,000 Index 35,000 5,000 Internet 60,000 -35,000 At the end of the first year, Ellie will either reinvest the entire amount plus the return or sell and take the profit or loss. If she reinvests, she estimates that there is a .60 probability the market will go up and a .40 probability the market will go down. If Ellie reinvests in the global fund after it has gone up, her return on her initial $200,000 investment plus her $25,000 return after 1 year will be $45,000. If the market goes down, her loss will be $15,000. If she reinvests after…arrow_forwardA retailer must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at the location can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff = $223,000) or to expand (payoff = $270,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is $200,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing ($40,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff is estimated to be only $20,000; the payoff grows to $220,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is $800,000.Draw a decision tree. Then analyze it to determine the…arrow_forwardA soft drink company is considering launching a ‘seasonal soda’ that will be sold for a limited duration. They are considering selling the new soda X-Mist during the upcoming summer season. The company believes, based on its limited market analysis, that there is a 0.75 probability that X-Mist will have a successful summer season and have estimated that they will receive a profit of $4 million if it is successful. If X-Mist is not successful over the summer season, the company will incur a loss of $900,000. The firm Market-Strategies can do an extensive market analysis for a fee of $35,000. Market-Strategies has demonstrated that it is 90 percent reliable in its market analysis for soft drinks, i.e., a soda that will be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Successful’ by Market-Strategies with a probability 0.9 and a soda that will not be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Fail’ by Market-Strategies with a probability of 0.9. The soft drink company must decide…arrow_forward
- A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table: State of Nature Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved Decision Alternative S1 S2 Purchase, d1 590 -160 Do not purchase, d2 0 0 If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?Recommended decision: What is the expected profit?Expected profit: $ fill in the blank 2 The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more…arrow_forward20. The Video Game Supply Company (VGS) is deciding whether to set next year's production at 2000, 2500, or 3000 games. Demand could be low, medium, or high. Using historical data, VGS estimates the probabilities as: 0.4 for low demand, 0.3 for medium demand, and 0.3 for high demand. The following profit payoff table (in $100s) has been developed. Demand Production Target Low Medium High 2000 games 2500 games 3000 games 1000 1200 1400 800 1500 1300 600 1700 1400 (a) [1] What is the maximax decision alternative? (b) [1] What is the maximin decision alternative? (c) [2] Determine the expected value of each alternative and indicate what should be the production target for next year based on expected value. (d) [1] Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states of nature. (e) [1] Determine the expected value of perfect information.arrow_forwardhelp me answer this question plsarrow_forward
- Problem 1: A government committee is considering the economic benefits of a program of preventative flu vaccinations. We will assume that the flu vaccine is completely effective so if the vaccine is implemented, there will be no flu cases. It is estimated that a vaccination program will cost $9 million and that the probability of flu striking in the next year is 0.70. If vaccinations are not introduced then the estimated cost to the government if flu strikes in the next year is $7 million with probability 0.15, $10 million with probability 0.25 and $15 million with probability 0.6. One alternative open to the committee is to institute an "early-warning" monitoring scheme (costing $3 million) which will enable it to detect an outbreak of flu early and therefore decide whether or not to institute a rush vaccination program (costing $12 million because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads, again with the vaccine being completely effective) or to do nothing with…arrow_forwardBuild-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: The best decision according to laplace criterion is alternative to what? and the weighted payoff for this decision is what?arrow_forwardBuild-Rite Construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build-Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from its relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table: Demand for Home Improvements Alternative Low Moderate High Hire ($250,000) $100,000 $625,000 Subcontract $100,000 $150,000 $415,000 Do nothing $50,000 $80,000 $300,000 Which alternative is best, according to each of thefollowing decision criteria?a. Maximinb. Maximaxc. Laplaced. Minimax regretarrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,