Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 12, Problem 26P
Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing
The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past eight years:
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (α = .30, β = .20) and a linear trend line model, and compare the forecast accuracy of the two using MAD. Indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.
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The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past eight years:
Year Coal Sales (tonnes)
1 4260
2 4510
3 4050
4 3720
5 3900
6 3470
7 2890
8 3100
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model (α=0.30, β=0.20) and a linear trend line model, and compare the forecast accuracy of the two using MAD. Indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.
The manager of a small health clinic would like to use exponential smoothing to forecast demand for laboratory services in the facility
However, she is not sure whether to use a high or low value of. To make her decision, she would like to compare the forecast accuracy
of a high and low on historical data. She has decided to use an a-0.7 for the high value and a-0.1 for the low value.
(a)
Given the following historical data, which do you think would be better to use? (Round answers to 2 decimal place, es 15.25)
Demand
(lab requirements)
Week
2
3
347
361
337
360
374
347
Forecasts using 0-0.1 MAD
Forecasts using a-0.7. MAD
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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