Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 16P
The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the holiday season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for order per “season” (quarter) during the past five years:
- a. Develop a seasonally adjusted
forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each quarter for year 6 (using a linear trend line forecast estimate for orders in year 6). - b. Develop a separate linear trend line forecast for each of the four seasons and forecast each season for year 6.
- c. Which of the two approaches used in parts (a) and (b) appear to be the most accurate? Use MAD to verify your selection.
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Students have asked these similar questions
National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below:
Sales (1000 units)
Forecast
Observation
Month
Yt
Ft
1
February
19
2
March
18
3
April
15
4
May
20
5
June
18
6
July
22
7
August
20
8
September
?
Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods:
The naïve forecast
A three-month moving average
Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19
A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Year
Demand
8
10
5
7
12
8
11
14
8
11
8
This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.
b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
Forecast
c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through
(round your responses to two decimal places).
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Year
4
Forecast
d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2.14 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 2.60. Based on this
information, the better forecast is achieved using the
approach.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
7
9
6
10
12
7
12
12
9
9
8
Part 2
Using exponential smoothing with
α =
0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of
6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Part 3
Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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