Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 9P
Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund and she is considering liquidating and investing in a bond fund. She would like to
- a. Using a three-month moving average, forecast the fund price for month 21.
- b. Using a three-month weighted average with the most recent month weighted .60, the next most recent month weighted .30, and the third month weighted .10, forecast the fund price for month 21.
- c. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast using α = .40 and forecast the fund price for month 21.
- d. Compare the forecasts in (a), (b), and (c) using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months:
Month
Fund Price
1
62.7
2
63.9
3
68.0
4
66.4
5
67.2
6
65.8
7
68.2
8
69.3
9
67.2
10
70.1
Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the exponentially smoothed forecast with α=.40,
Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α=.40and β=.30, and
Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the linear trend line forecast. (Compute a and b by constructing columns xy and x^2)
Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts, using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
1) A supermarket has experienced weekly demand of milk of D1 = 120, D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and
D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period 5 using a four-period
moving average. What is the forecast error if demand in Period 5 turns out to be 125 gallons?
2)
Consider the supermarket in Example 7-1, in which weekly demand for milk has been D1 = 120,
D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period
5 using weighted average method. Assign weights yourself.
12.7 The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly
price for the past 10 months.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Fund Price
62.7
63.9
68.0
66.4
67.2
65.8
68.2
69.3
67.2
70.1
Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with a = 0.40, the adjusted exponentially
smoothed forecast with a = 0.40 and ß = 0.30, and the linear trend line forecast.
Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts using cumulative error and MAD, and
indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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