Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 12, Problem 9P
Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund and she is considering liquidating and investing in a bond fund. She would like to
- a. Using a three-month moving average, forecast the fund price for month 21.
- b. Using a three-month weighted average with the most recent month weighted .60, the next most recent month weighted .30, and the third month weighted .10, forecast the fund price for month 21.
- c. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast using α = .40 and forecast the fund price for month 21.
- d. Compare the forecasts in (a), (b), and (c) using MAD and indicate the most accurate.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months:
Month
Fund Price
1
62.7
2
63.9
3
68.0
4
66.4
5
67.2
6
65.8
7
68.2
8
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Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the exponentially smoothed forecast with α=.40,
Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α=.40and β=.30, and
Compute the forecast for Month 11 using the linear trend line forecast. (Compute a and b by constructing columns xy and x^2)
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1) A supermarket has experienced weekly demand of milk of D1 = 120, D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and
D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period 5 using a four-period
moving average. What is the forecast error if demand in Period 5 turns out to be 125 gallons?
2)
Consider the supermarket in Example 7-1, in which weekly demand for milk has been D1 = 120,
D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period
5 using weighted average method. Assign weights yourself.
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:
YEAR
CASES OFMERLOT WINE
1
286
2
372
3
414
4
472
5
374
6
516
7
426
8
392
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8.
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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