Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 12, Problem 14Q

What determines the choice of the smoothing constant for trend in an adjusted exponential smoothing model?

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What is the difference between adjusted exponential smoothing and exponential smoothing?
Sales of​ Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years​ (see table​ below). Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant ​(α​) of 0.30 and a starting forecast of 420.00​, the following sales forecast has been​ developed:                                                                                     Year Sales Forecasted Sales 1 460 420.00 2 510 432.00 3 520 455.40   Using smoothing constants of 0.60 and 0.90​, develop forecasts for the sales of VW Beetles. Use MAD to determine which of the three smoothing constants ​(0.30​, 0.60​, or 0.90​) gives the most accurate forecast. The MAD for a forecast developed using exponential smoothing with α=0.30 is nothing sales. ​(Round your response to two decimal​ places.)
The data shown in the following table represent visitors to the Hawaiian Islands over the past several years, by quarter. Use the data for the first five years to estimate the seasonal and trend factors. Then build an exponential smoothing model (incorporating both trend and seasonal factors) to provide for the forecasts of the remaining periods. Plot the actual visitors and the forecasts. Compare the accuracy of the forecasts in the 1985 to 1990 period with those subsequent to that period. Thousands of Persons Second Third Fourth Annual First Quarter Year Quarter Quarter Quarter Visitors 1980 1,004.8 942.9 1,047.3 939.5 3,934.5 1981 959.0 984.5 1,042.3 948.8 3,934.6 1982 1,054.0 1,048.7 1,110.7 1,029.5 4,242.9 1983 1,069.9 1,071.5 1,146.4 1,080.2 4,368.0 1984 1,218.5 1,206.8 1,222.9 1,207.4 4,855.6 1985 1,301.5 1,129.6 1,266.9 1,186.2 4,884.2 1986 1,393.2 1,421.2 1,450.9 1,341.8 5,607.1 1987 1,448.9 1,370.0 1,555.2 1,425.8 5,799.9 1988 1,484.9 1,488.2 1,635.6 1,533.7 6,142.4 1989…

Chapter 12 Solutions

Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition

Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...

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