Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 12, Problem 13P

Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer in Problem 12.3. Use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4.

The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past three years from its sales records.

Chapter 12, Problem 13P, Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer in Problem 12.3. Use a

  1. a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
  2. b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
  3. c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast using weights of .50, .33, and .17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
  4. d. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative error. Which forecast appears to be most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?
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The manager of Redline Trucking believes that the demand for tires used on his trucks is closely related to the number of miles driven. He has collected the following data covering the past four months. Month 1 2 3 4 Tires Used 100 150 120 80 Miles Driven 15,000 20,000 17,000 11,000   Write an algebraic equation forecasting the demand for tires. Indicate and explain the independenet and dependant variables and the parameters used in your equation.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11​ years:                                                                                                                                             Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with   α ​=   0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of   6.0​, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 ​(round your responses to one decimal​ place).                                                       Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach ​(enter your responses as whole​ numbers).
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Year Demand 8 10 5 7 12 8 11 14 8 11 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year Forecast c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through (round your responses to two decimal places). 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Year 4 Forecast d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2.14 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 2.60. Based on this information, the better forecast is achieved using the approach.

Chapter 12 Solutions

Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition

Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...

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