Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Chapter 12, Problem 11P
The Bee Line Café is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, which it makes in a small plant in back of the cafe. People drive long distances to buy the ice cream. The two ladies who own the café want to develop a
Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model with α = .50 and β = .50 to forecast demand, and assess its accuracy using cumulative error (E) and average error (
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Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television
appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table:
Maroon 5 TV Appearances
Demand for Guitars
4 7 6 8 5
5 10 7
7
3
3 6
This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.
b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal places);
Y=0+0x
The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:Period, Demand, Predicted1 129 1242 194 2003 156 1504 91 945 85 806 132 1407 126 1288 126 1249 95 10010 149 15011 98 9412 85 8013 137 14014 134 128a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .3.b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. If limits of ± 4 are used, what can you conclude?
Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument distributorship, thinks that demand for guitars may be related to the number of television appearances by the popular group Maroon 5 during the previous month. Gershon has collected the data shown in the following table:
Maroon 5 TV Appearances
3
3
8
5
8
6
Demand for Guitars
2
5
6
4
11
6
This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.
b) Using the least-squares regression method, the equation for forecasting is (round your responses to four decimal
places):
Y =
+
c) The estimate for guitar sales if Maroon 5 performed on TV 11times =
sales (round your response to two decimal places).
d) The correlation coefficient (r)for this model =
(round your response to four decimal places).
The coefficient of determination
(r2)
for this model =
(round your response to…
Chapter 12 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 12 - List some of the operations and functions in a...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between quantitative...Ch. 12 - Describe the difference between short- and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 4QCh. 12 - Why is accurate forecasting so important to...Ch. 12 - Discuss the relationship between forecasting and...Ch. 12 - Prob. 7QCh. 12 - Describe the Delphi method for forecasting.Ch. 12 - What is the difference between a trend and a cycle...Ch. 12 - How is the moving average method similar to...
Ch. 12 - In the chapter examples for time series methods,...Ch. 12 - What effect on the exponential smoothing model...Ch. 12 - How does adjusted exponential smoothing differ...Ch. 12 - What determines the choice of the smoothing...Ch. 12 - How does the linear trend line forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Of the time series models presented in this...Ch. 12 - What advantages does adjusted exponential...Ch. 12 - Describe how a forecast is monitored to detect...Ch. 12 - Explain the relationship between the use of a...Ch. 12 - Selecting from MAD, MAPD, MSE, E, and E, which...Ch. 12 - What is the difference between linear and multiple...Ch. 12 - Define the different components (y, x, a, and b)...Ch. 12 - A company that produces video equipment, including...Ch. 12 - The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the...Ch. 12 - The manager of the I-85 Carpet Outlet needs to be...Ch. 12 - The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes...Ch. 12 - Graph the demand data in Problem 12.3. Can you...Ch. 12 - The chairperson of the department of management at...Ch. 12 - The manager of the Excom Service Station wants to...Ch. 12 - The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had...Ch. 12 - The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum,...Ch. 12 - Mary Hernandez has invested in a stock mutual fund...Ch. 12 - Globetron manufactures components for use in small...Ch. 12 - The Bee Line Caf is well known for its popular...Ch. 12 - For the demand data in Problem 12.11, develop a...Ch. 12 - Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the...Ch. 12 - Backstreets Pizza delivery service has randomly...Ch. 12 - The Willow River Mining Company mines and ships...Ch. 12 - The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog...Ch. 12 - Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in...Ch. 12 - The town aquatic center has an indoor pool that...Ch. 12 - Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast...Ch. 12 - During the past five months the emergency room at...Ch. 12 - At its craft store and through its website, the...Ch. 12 - A group of business students at Tech organized a...Ch. 12 - Temco Industries has developed a forecasting model...Ch. 12 - Monitor the forecast in Problem 12.23 for bias...Ch. 12 - Develop a statistical control chart for the...Ch. 12 - Monitor the adjusted exponential smoothing...Ch. 12 - Develop an exponential smoothing forecast with =...
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