OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9780077835439
Author: Roger G Schroeder, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Susan Meyer Goldstein
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 10.S, Problem 2P

eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from the Donut Hole Shop has been recorded for a two week period.

Day Demand Day Demand
1 80 8 85
2 95 9 99
3 120 10 110
4 110 11 90
5 75 12 80
6 60 13 65
7 50 14 50
  1. a. Simulate a forecast of the demand using trend adjusted exponential smoothing Use values of Ao = 90. T0 = 25, and α = β = .2.
  2. b. Plot the data and the forecast on a graph.
  3. c. Does this appear to be a good model for the data?
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The Yummy Ice Cream Company projects the demand for ice cream by using first-order exponential smoothing. Last week the forecast was 100,000 gallons of ice cream, and 90,000 gallons was actually sold.   Using alpha=.1, prepare a forecast for next week.     Calculate the forecast using Alpha=.2 and Alpha=.3 for this problem. Which values of Alpha gave the best forecast, assuming actual demand for next week ends up being 95,000 gallons?
Bradley’s Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines.The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with a = 0.20. Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week.Week             Actual Service Calls1                       292                        273                       414                      185                        33

Chapter 10 Solutions

OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)

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