OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
7th Edition
ISBN: 9780077835439
Author: Roger G Schroeder, M. Johnny Rungtusanatham, Susan Meyer Goldstein
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Chapter 10.S, Problem 3P
The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of various sizes and shapes. The demand for tires tends to follow a quarterly seasonal pattern with a trend. For a particular type of tire the company's current estimates are as follows: A0 = 10,000, T0 = 1,000, = .8, R-x = 1.2, R-a = 1.5, and R-3 = .75.
- a. The company has just observed the first quarter of demand D1 = 6000 and would like to update its
forecast for each of the next four quarters using a = P = Y = .4. - b. When demand is observed for the second quarter, it is D7 = 15,000. How much error is there in the forecast?
- c. Update the forecasts again for the coming year, using the second-quarter demand data.
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The manager of Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of demand for Soft Shag Carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months:
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12
3
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Required showing all workings:
Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33 and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month.
Given the demand data, answer the following questions below.
Year Sales
1 - 123
2 - 118
3 - 109
4 - 112
5 -100
6 -110
7 -124
8 - ?
What will be the forecast demand in Year 8 using Naïve method?a.) 120b.) 110c.) 115d.) 124
A newly operated company producing household items would want to forecast its sales volume for the next month. It has been in operation for ten (10) months now. For the past ten (10) months, forecast and sales data for its top selling Item A are as follow:
Time Period
Forecasted Value
Actual Sales (Quantity)
10th month
405
345
9th month
400
380
8th month
410
400
7th month
370
375
6th month
330
360
5th month
320
325
4th month
320
315
3rd month
305
300
2nd month
290
295
1st month
300
280
The operations manager observes the fluctuations on the sales quantity over the 10-month period that the company is in operation. To forecast for the 11th month, the team decided to evaluate options on what forecasting method to use. Their options are:
To use the Moving Average Method using the sales data for the past 10 months,
To use the Exponential Smoothing Average assigning a smoothing constant of .6 and
To use the Trend-adjusted Exponential Smoothing assigning smoothing constants α =…
Chapter 10 Solutions
OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN: DECISIONS & CASES (Mcgraw-hill Series Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 10.S - Ace Hardware sells spare parts for lawn mowers....Ch. 10.S - eXcel The daily demand for chocolate donuts from...Ch. 10.S - The SureGrip Tire Company produces tires of...Ch. 10.S - eXcelManagement believes there is a seasonal...Ch. 10.S - Management of the ABC Floral Shop believes that...Ch. 10 - Prob. 1DQCh. 10 - What is the distinction between forecasting and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasting methods should be used...Ch. 10 - Describe the uses of qualitative, time-series, and...Ch. 10 - Qualitative forecasts and causal forecasts are not...
Ch. 10 - Prob. 6DQCh. 10 - What are the advantages of exponential smoothing...Ch. 10 - How should the choice of be made for exponential...Ch. 10 - Prob. 9DQCh. 10 - Prob. 10DQCh. 10 - Explain how CPFR can be used to reduce forecasting...Ch. 10 - Under what circumstances might CPFR be useful, and...Ch. 10 - Daily demand for marigold flowers at a large...Ch. 10 - The number of daily calls for the repair of Speedy...Ch. 10 - 3-The ABC Floral Shop sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - The Handy Dandy Department Store had forecast...Ch. 10 - 5-The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential...Ch. 10 - Using the data in problem 2, prepare exponentially...Ch. 10 - Compute the errors of bias and absolute deviation...Ch. 10 - eXcel At the ABC Floral Shop, an argument...Ch. 10 - Only a portion of the following table for...Ch. 10 - A candy store has sold the following number of...Ch. 10 - eXcel A grocery store sells the following number...Ch. 10 - Prob. 12PCh. 10 - The Easyfit tire store had demand for tires shown...Ch. 10 - Prob. 14P
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