Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781259580093
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 5.S, Problem 9DRQ
Under what circumstances is expected monetary value appropriate as a decision criterion? When isn’t it appropriate?
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By selecting Cigna Accredo pharmacy that i identify in my resand compare the current feedback system against the “Characteristics of a Good Multiple Source Feedback Systems” described in section 8-3-3. What can be improved? As a consultant, what recommendations would you make?
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 5 Solutions
Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
Ch. 5.8 - Explain the meaning of the phrase Hours versus...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.4RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.5RQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5.S - Explain the term bounded rationality.Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 5DRQ
Ch. 5.S - What information is contained in a payoff table?Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5.S - Under what circumstances is expected monetary...Ch. 5.S - Explain or define each of these terms: a. Laplace...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 12DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1PCh. 5.S - Refer to problem1. Suppose after a certain amount...Ch. 5.S - Refer to Problems 1 and 2 Construct a graph that...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4PCh. 5.S - Prob. 5PCh. 5.S - The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire....Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7PCh. 5.S - Prob. 8PCh. 5.S - Prob. 9PCh. 5.S - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11PCh. 5.S - Prob. 12PCh. 5.S - Prob. 13PCh. 5.S - Prob. 14PCh. 5.S - Give this payoff table: a. Determine the range of...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 16PCh. 5.S - Repeat all parts of problem 16, assuming the value...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5 - How do long-term and short-term capacity...Ch. 5 - Give an example of a good and a service that...Ch. 5 - Give some example of building flexibility into...Ch. 5 - Why is it important to adopt a big-picture...Ch. 5 - What is meant by capacity in chunks, and why is...Ch. 5 - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5 - How can a systems approach to capacity planning be...Ch. 5 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 5 - Why is it important to match process capabilities...Ch. 5 - Briefly discuss how uncertainty affects capacity...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 14DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 16DRQCh. 5 - What is the benefit to a business organization of...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1TSCh. 5 - Prob. 2TSCh. 5 - Prob. 3TSCh. 5 - Prob. 1CTECh. 5 - Prob. 2CTECh. 5 - Identify four potential unethical actions or...Ch. 5 - Any increase in efficiency also increases...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1PCh. 5 - In a job shop, effective capacity is only 50...Ch. 5 - A producer of pottery is considering the addition...Ch. 5 - A small firm intends to increase the capacity of a...Ch. 5 - A producer of felt-tip pens has received a...Ch. 5 - A real estate agent is considering changing her...Ch. 5 - A firm plans to begin production of a new small...Ch. 5 - A manager is trying to decide whether to purchase...Ch. 5 - A company manufactures a product using two machine...Ch. 5 - A company must decide which type of machine to...Ch. 5 - Prob. 11PCh. 5 - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13PCh. 5 - The following diagram shows a four-step process...Ch. 5 - Prob. 15PCh. 5 - Prob. 16PCh. 5 - Prob. 17PCh. 5 - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - A new machine will cost 18,000, butt result it...Ch. 5 - Remodelling an office will cost 25,000 and will...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1CQCh. 5 - Prob. 2CQCh. 5 - Prob. 3CQ
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