Concept explainers
a)
To determine: The minimum expected cost
Introduction: Expected monetary value is an anticipated value for an investment. The excepted monetary value is computed by multiplying every possible outcome by likelihood of each outcome will occur and summing the all values. Investors use expected monetary values to select the scenario that provides a desired outcome.
b.
To draw: A decision tree.
c.
To determine: The expected value of perfect information.
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI): It is the rate that a person is willing to pay to gain access to perfect information. A common area which uses expected value of perfect information is the healthcare economy. This value tries to evaluate the expected cost of the uncertainty, which can be interpreted as the expected value of perfect information.
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Loose-leaf for Operations Management (The Mcgraw-hill Series in Operations and Decision Sciences)
- What is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…arrow_forwardQuestion 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…arrow_forwardConstruct a decision tree for this problem. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the expected value? What is the expected value of perfect information? What is Hale’s optimal decision strategy assuming the agency’s information is used? What is the expected value of the agency’s information? Is the agency’s information worth the $5000 fee? What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the information? What is the recommended decision?arrow_forward
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- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,