Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.7, Problem 26P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The exponential smoothing forecast made for the sales in July at the end of March.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:
YEAR
CASES OFMERLOT WINE
1
286
2
372
3
414
4
472
5
374
6
516
7
426
8
392
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8.
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:
YEAR
CASES OFMERLOT WINE
2005
321
2006
407
2007
449
2008
507
2009
409
2010
551
2011
461
2012
427
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012.
The owner of a firm gathered the data from last year's sales in each month. He wants to forecast this year's
monthly sales using the data of the same month last year.
Complete the data on the table by considering the forecasting method indicated in each column. Show your
solution.
2021 actual
3-month Weighted Exponential
Moving
Average*
2021
sales (in
Naïve
Month
forecasted
Moving
Smoothing
hundred
forecasting
sales
Average
a = 0.80
thousand)
January
February
5
4
1.
1.
6.
3
2.
2.
March
7
7
3.
1.
1.
3.
April
May
4
5
4.
2.
2.
4.
3
5
5.
3.
3.
5.
June
2
4.
4.
July
5
5.
5.
*For WMA, consider the following weights: 0.5 (same month last year - n), 0.3 (n-1), 0.2 (n-2)
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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