Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2, Problem 47AP
A
Summary Introduction
To determine: The adjustment that should be made by Mr. Kittle to make in next year’s forecast to take into account the corrected value of the number of claims four years ago
Introduction:
A
Expert Solution
Answer to Problem 47AP
There should be a decrease in forecast by 40.
Explanation of Solution
Computing the difference made four years ago
Number of claims = 1400-1200
N = 200
Since it is a five year moving average, the change in calculation is shown below:
C =
Therefore, there should be a decrease in forecast by 40.
B
Summary Introduction
To calculate: The adjustment required for next year’s forecast
Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.
B
Expert Solution
Answer to Problem 47AP
The exponential smoothing forecasting, there should be a decrease of 16.384
Explanation of Solution
Considering exponential smoothing constant,
Adjustment forecast =
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Students have asked these similar questions
A newly operated company producing household items would want to forecast its sales volume for the next month. It has been in operation for ten (10) months now. For the past ten (10) months, forecast and sales data for its top selling Item A are as follow:
Time Period
Forecasted Value
Actual Sales (Quantity)
10th month
405
345
9th month
400
380
8th month
410
400
7th month
370
375
6th month
330
360
5th month
320
325
4th month
320
315
3rd month
305
300
2nd month
290
295
1st month
300
280
The operations manager observes the fluctuations on the sales quantity over the 10-month period that the company is in operation. To forecast for the 11th month, the team decided to evaluate options on what forecasting method to use. Their options are:
To use the Moving Average Method using the sales data for the past 10 months,
To use the Exponential Smoothing Average assigning a smoothing constant of .6 and
To use the Trend-adjusted Exponential Smoothing assigning smoothing constants α =…
The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:
A. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it by period using exponentially smoothing with alpha 0.30
B. Compute a tracking signal for period 5 through 14 using the initial and updated mads. If limit of ± 3 are used.
Note: Use manual computation not in excel
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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