Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2, Problem 48AP
Summary Introduction

To determine: The values of the MAD for periods 2 through 8, using the same value of α and to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach mentioned vis-à-vis direct computation of MAD.

Introduction: Forecasting is the main function of predicting the future using the information available for decision making. It is a mechanism for planning decisions based on the predicted information.

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The problem is based on the following data given. Observations of the demand for a certain part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year 2013 were ( as shown ). Compute the one-step-ahead three-month and six-month moving-average forecasts for July through December. What effect does increasing N from 3 to 6 have on the forecasts?
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A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days were   a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial forecast of 46 for Day 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and α = β = .3, develop demand forecasts for Days 9 through 16. Then compute the resultant MSE using the error values from Days 8 through 15. (Round your intermediate period-by-period forecast and error values to 3 decimal places. Round your final MSE answer to 3 decimal places.) MSE = Day: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Number sold: 31 32 35 38 38 42 42 43 41 44 46 46 49 55 52
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