Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter 11.5, Problem 42P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The strategy that would maximize the probability of winning or tying the game.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionStudents have asked these similar questions
The drum has a weight of 72 lb and a radius of gyration kO=0.4ft . If the cable, which is wrapped around the drum, is subjected to a vertical force P = 12 lb, determine the time needed to increase the drum's angular velocity from \omega 1=5rad/s to \omega 2=25rad/s . Neglect the mass of the cable.
A scientist works in a lab with four summer interns and, as it is the end of the summer, he anticipates the head of the lab will ask him which of them he wants to retain. In terms of quality, the scientist and the head of the lab agree that intern A is better than intern B who is better than intern C who is better than intern D. The scientist would like to keep as many interns as possible and, given any number, the highest-quality ones. However, due to funding restrictions, the head of the lab wants to limit the number of interns that are retained. The head of the lab initially tells the scientist to select two interns to retain. After the scientist chooses two interns, the head of the lab decides whether to allow the scientist to retain a third intern. Thus, the sequence of moves is: 1) the scientist chooses two interns (both of whom are then retained); 2) the head of the lab decides either to allow the scientist to choose a third or not; and possibly 3) if the head of the lab chose…
Students in two different classes used two different textbooks to learn the same subject matter. We wish to estimate with 90% confidence how much better students in Class B performed.
A
B
90
89
75
80
95
89
85
94
86
91
86
82
93
90
92
92
In order to construct a 90% confidence interval here, we should use:
TInterval
2-SampTInt
1-PropZInt
2-PropZInt
2-SampZInt
ZInterval
Chapter 11 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 11.2 - If the number of competitors in Example 11.1...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from...Ch. 11.2 - Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for...Ch. 11.2 - See how sensitive the results in Example 11.2 are...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.2, the gamma distribution was used...Ch. 11.2 - Prob. 6PCh. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, suppose you want to run five...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, if a batch fails to pass...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...
Ch. 11.3 - In the cash balance model from Example 11.5, the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 12PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 13PCh. 11.3 - The simulation output from Example 11.6 indicates...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 15PCh. 11.3 - Referring to the retirement example in Example...Ch. 11.3 - A European put option allows an investor to sell a...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 18PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 19PCh. 11.3 - Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100....Ch. 11.3 - Amanda has 30 years to save for her retirement. At...Ch. 11.3 - In the financial world, there are many types of...Ch. 11.3 - Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three...Ch. 11.3 - If you own a stock, buying a put option on the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 25PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 26PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 27PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 28PCh. 11.4 - Prob. 29PCh. 11.4 - Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An...Ch. 11.4 - Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week...Ch. 11.4 - The customer loyalty model in Example 11.9 assumes...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 33PCh. 11.4 - Suppose that GLC earns a 2000 profit each time a...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 35PCh. 11.5 - A martingale betting strategy works as follows....Ch. 11.5 - The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You...Ch. 11.5 - You have 5 and your opponent has 10. You flip a...Ch. 11.5 - Assume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of...Ch. 11.5 - Consider the following card game. The player and...Ch. 11.5 - Prob. 42PCh. 11 - You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four...Ch. 11 - You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a...Ch. 11 - Suppose you have invested 25% of your portfolio in...Ch. 11 - Prob. 47PCh. 11 - Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has...Ch. 11 - Prob. 50PCh. 11 - Prob. 52PCh. 11 - The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drug...Ch. 11 - Prob. 54PCh. 11 - The DC Cisco office is trying to predict the...Ch. 11 - A common decision is whether a company should buy...Ch. 11 - Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the...Ch. 11 - You are considering a 10-year investment project....Ch. 11 - Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll....Ch. 11 - An automobile manufacturer is considering whether...Ch. 11 - It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to...Ch. 11 - Prob. 65PCh. 11 - Rework the previous problem for a case in which...Ch. 11 - Prob. 68PCh. 11 - The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the...Ch. 11 - Prob. 70PCh. 11 - In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a...Ch. 11 - Prob. 76PCh. 11 - It is January 1 of year 0, and Merck is trying to...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are an HR (human resources) manager at...Ch. 11 - You are an avid basketball fan, and you would like...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are a financial analyst and your...Ch. 11 - Software development is an inherently risky and...Ch. 11 - Health care is continually in the news. Can (or...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.arrow_forwardYou now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four times. Before each toss you can bet any amount of your money (including none) on the outcome of the toss. If heads comes up, you win the amount you bet. If tails comes up, you lose the amount you bet. Your goal is to reach 15,000. It turns out that you can maximize your chance of reaching 15,000 by betting either the money you have on hand or 15,000 minus the money you have on hand, whichever is smaller. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you will reach your goal with this betting strategy.arrow_forwardIn this version of dice blackjack, you toss a single die repeatedly and add up the sum of your dice tosses. Your goal is to come as close as possible to a total of 7 without going over. You may stop at any time. If your total is 8 or more, you lose. If your total is 7 or less, the house then tosses the die repeatedly. The house stops as soon as its total is 4 or more. If the house totals 8 or more, you win. Otherwise, the higher total wins. If there is a tie, the house wins. Consider the following strategies: Keep tossing until your total is 3 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 5 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 6 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 7 or more. For example, suppose you keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Here are some examples of how the game might go: You toss a 2 and then a 3 and stop for total of 5. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You lose because a tie goes to the house. You toss a 3 and then a 6. You lose. You toss a 6 and stop. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You win. You toss a 3 and then a 4 for total of 7. The house tosses a 3 and then a 5. You win. Note that only 4 tosses need to be generated for the house, but more tosses might need to be generated for you, depending on your strategy. Develop a simulation and run it for at least 1000 iterations for each of the strategies listed previously. For each strategy, what are the two values so that you are 95% sure that your probability of winning is between these two values? Which of the five strategies appears to be best?arrow_forward
- i will 5 upvotes. do fastarrow_forwardFamous psychic, television personality Sylvia Browne is invited to Oprah Winfrey show to demonstrate her gift in a live TV broadcast. The process entails asking Sylvia a series of 20 independent questions with yes/no answers. The questions would be of the nature that she could not have any way of knowing the answer from prior knowledge. Suppose that Sylvia correctly answered 15 of the 20 questions, which of the following would be a viable conclusion to reach? If she were guessing, 15 is within one standard deviation of the mean and therefore she must not have any special psychic abilities. Because the probability of getting 15 or more correct is 0.0207, it is likely that she is just guessing at the questions. Because the probability of guessing exactly 15 correct is 0.0148, she must just be guessing. Because the probability of guessing 15 or more correctly is 0.0207, it is unlikely that she is guessing at the questions and may, in fact, have some special ability.arrow_forwardEmployees in the textile industry can be segmented as follows:Employees NumberFemale and union 12,000Female and nonunion 25,000Male and union 21,000Male and nonunion 42,000 What is the probability that an employee is male?arrow_forward
- do fast i will 10 upvotesarrow_forwardA toy manufacturer wants to see how long, on average, a new toy captures children's attention. He tests 17 children selected at random and finds that their mean attention span is 27 minutes with a standard deviation of 5 minutes. If we assume that attention spans are normally distributed, find a 90% confidence interval for the mean attention span of children playing with this new toy. Give the lower limit and upper limit of the 90% confidence interval. Carry your intermediate computations to at least three decimal places. Round your answers to one decimal place. (If necessary, consult a list of formulas.) Lower limit: Upper limit:arrow_forwarddo fastarrow_forward
- Mo. The company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is it worth eliminating uncertainty about finding the oil? Calculate EVPI to justify your…arrow_forwardConsider the Max LP: min w I1, I2 Decide if this is a normal max LP (but I decided not to ask) (y₁ ≥ 0) Y₁ (Y/2 ≥ 0) Y2 (Y3 > 0) Y3 x = 3x1 + 201 8.t. 21 +2 X1 + X2 I1 2. Here is a the table form for finding the dual, but there is a couple of missing or incorrect entries that you are asked to identify below it: the value of a is cis max z (*₁ ≥ 0) (*₂ > 0) Ta 1 1 21 2 1 100 ≤80 ≤40 >0 a 2 the missing value(s) in position b is (are) no extra spaces though) 3. The objective function for the dual min is w = cy1 + dy2 + e y3 where and d is <100 <80 <40 and e is (as we usually write thingsarrow_forwardSuppose that you want to study the effect of occupational licensing on quality of care received at nursing homes. Suppose further that you come across a policy which states that facilities with fewer than 100 beds are not required to hire licensed workers, while those with over 100 beds are required to hire licensed workers. Suppose further you assume that facilities with fewer than 100 beds are similar to facilities with just over 100 beds (as if it is random which facilities fall on which side of the threshold). Given this description, the most straightforward method you can use to identify the causal effect of licensing requirement on quality of care is: Difference-in-differences (diff-in-diff) Instrumental variables (IV) Regression discontinuity design (RDD)arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,