Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 11, Problem 44P
You now have $5000. You will toss a fair coin four times. Before each toss you can bet any amount of your money (including none) on the outcome of the toss. If heads comes up, you win the amount you bet. If tails comes up, you lose the amount you bet. Your goal is to reach $15,000. It turns out that you can maximize your chance of reaching $15,000 by betting either the money you have on hand or $15,000 minus the money you have on hand, whichever is smaller. Use simulation to estimate the probability that you will reach your goal with this betting strategy.
Expert Solution & Answer
Summary Introduction
To estimate: The probability that Person X would reach the goal with the betting strategy.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
Explanation of Solution
Formulae to determine the above table:
Output results:
The following table is attained by running the simulation @RISK by placing the cursor at B15:
The gambler reaches the goal about 31.5% of the time
Want to see more full solutions like this?
Subscribe now to access step-by-step solutions to millions of textbook problems written by subject matter experts!
Students have asked these similar questions
“Implementing a Performance Management Communication Plan at Accounting, Inc.”
Evaluate Accounting Inc.’s communication plan. Specifically, does it answer all of the questions that a good communication plan should answer? Which questions are left unanswered? How would you provide answers to the unanswered questions? “Implementing an Appeals Process at Accounting, Inc.”
If you were to design an appeals process to handle these complaints well, what would be the appeal process? Describe the recommended process and why.
The annual demand for water bottles at Mega Stores is 500 units, with an ordering cost of Rs. 200
per order. If the annual inventory holding cost is estimated to be 20%. of unit cost, how frequently
should he replenish his stocks? Further, suppose the supplier offers him a discount on bulk
ordering as given below. Can the manager reduce his costs by taking advantage of either of these
discounts? Recommend the best ordering policy for the store.
Order size Unit cost (Rs.)
1 – 49 pcs. 20.00
50 – 149 pcs. 19.50
150 – 299 pcs. 19.00
300 pcs. or more 18.00
Help answer showing level work and formulas
Chapter 11 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 11.2 - If the number of competitors in Example 11.1...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from...Ch. 11.2 - Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for...Ch. 11.2 - See how sensitive the results in Example 11.2 are...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.2, the gamma distribution was used...Ch. 11.2 - Prob. 6PCh. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, suppose you want to run five...Ch. 11.2 - In Example 11.3, if a batch fails to pass...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...Ch. 11.3 - Rerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4,...
Ch. 11.3 - In the cash balance model from Example 11.5, the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 12PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 13PCh. 11.3 - The simulation output from Example 11.6 indicates...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 15PCh. 11.3 - Referring to the retirement example in Example...Ch. 11.3 - A European put option allows an investor to sell a...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 18PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 19PCh. 11.3 - Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100....Ch. 11.3 - Amanda has 30 years to save for her retirement. At...Ch. 11.3 - In the financial world, there are many types of...Ch. 11.3 - Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three...Ch. 11.3 - If you own a stock, buying a put option on the...Ch. 11.3 - Prob. 25PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 26PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 27PCh. 11.3 - Prob. 28PCh. 11.4 - Prob. 29PCh. 11.4 - Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An...Ch. 11.4 - Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week...Ch. 11.4 - The customer loyalty model in Example 11.9 assumes...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 33PCh. 11.4 - Suppose that GLC earns a 2000 profit each time a...Ch. 11.4 - Prob. 35PCh. 11.5 - A martingale betting strategy works as follows....Ch. 11.5 - The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You...Ch. 11.5 - You have 5 and your opponent has 10. You flip a...Ch. 11.5 - Assume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of...Ch. 11.5 - Consider the following card game. The player and...Ch. 11.5 - Prob. 42PCh. 11 - You now have 5000. You will toss a fair coin four...Ch. 11 - You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a...Ch. 11 - Suppose you have invested 25% of your portfolio in...Ch. 11 - Prob. 47PCh. 11 - Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has...Ch. 11 - Prob. 50PCh. 11 - Prob. 52PCh. 11 - The annual demand for Prizdol, a prescription drug...Ch. 11 - Prob. 54PCh. 11 - The DC Cisco office is trying to predict the...Ch. 11 - A common decision is whether a company should buy...Ch. 11 - Suppose you begin year 1 with 5000. At the...Ch. 11 - You are considering a 10-year investment project....Ch. 11 - Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll....Ch. 11 - An automobile manufacturer is considering whether...Ch. 11 - It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to...Ch. 11 - Prob. 65PCh. 11 - Rework the previous problem for a case in which...Ch. 11 - Prob. 68PCh. 11 - The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the...Ch. 11 - Prob. 70PCh. 11 - In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a...Ch. 11 - Prob. 76PCh. 11 - It is January 1 of year 0, and Merck is trying to...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are an HR (human resources) manager at...Ch. 11 - You are an avid basketball fan, and you would like...Ch. 11 - Suppose you are a financial analyst and your...Ch. 11 - Software development is an inherently risky and...Ch. 11 - Health care is continually in the news. Can (or...
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- I need to forecast using a 3-Period-Moving-Average-Monthly forecasting model which I did but then I need to use my forecast numbers to generate a Master Production Schedule (MPS) I have to Start with actual sales (my own test data numbers) for August-2022 Oct-2022 i need to create MPS to supply demand starting November-2022 April 2023 I just added numbers without applying formulas to the mps on the right side of the spreadsheet because I do not know how to do it. The second image is the example of what it should look like. Thank You.arrow_forwardSolve the following Question 1. How do volume and variety affect the process selection and layout types? Discuss 2. How is the human resource aspect important to operation function? Discuss 3. Discuss the supply network design and its impact on the overall performance of the organization.arrow_forwardHelp with question?arrow_forward
- What are some good examples of bullet points on a resume for a Christian Elementary School?arrow_forwardWhat is an example of a cover letter for a Christian School Long-Term Substitute Teaching position?arrow_forwardThe supply chain is a conventional notion, but organizations are only really interested in making products that they can sell to customers. Provided they have reliable supplies of materials and reasonable transport for finished products, logistics is irrelevant. Do you think this is true? If yes, explain, and if no, clearly explain as well.arrow_forward
- working as a program operations managerarrow_forward12 X1, X230 1 x =0x2 write the Following linear Programming model by 1- general Form Canonical Forms Canonical formY 2- Standard Form Max Z=35X+ 4 X 2 +6 X3 ST. X+2X2-5x3 = 40 3X, + 6X2 + 7x 3 = 30 7x, +lox2 x3 = 50 X3 X 2 X 3 <0arrow_forwarda/ a Minimum cost assign each worker for one job at Jobs J1 12 33 WI 2 4 6 W2 5 W3 5 33 6 7arrow_forward
- وبة واضافة هذه القيمة الى القيم Ex: Assign each job for each worker at minimum total Cost عمل لكل عامل وبأقل كلفة ممكنة obs الأعمال Workors العمال J1 J2 J3 J4 W₁ 15 13 14 12 W2 11 12 15 13 W3 13 12 10 11 W4 15 17 14 16arrow_forwardThe average completion time (flow time) for the sequence developed using the FCFS rule = 11.75 days (round your response to two decimal places). The percentage utilization for the sequence developed using the FCFS rule = 42.55 % (enter your response as a percentage rounded to two decimal places). b) Using the SPT (shortest processing time) decision rule for sequencing the jobs, the order is (to resolve a tie, use the order in which the jobs were received): An Alabama lumberyard has four jobs on order, as shown in the following table. Today is day 205 on the yard's schedule. In what sequence would the jobs be ranked according to the decision rules on the left: Job Due Date A 212 B 209 C 208 D 210 Duration (days) 6 3 3 8 Sequence 1 Job B 2 3 4 A D The average tardiness (job lateness) for the sequence developed using the SPT rule = 5.00 days (round your response to two decimal places). The average completion time (flow time) for the sequence developed using the SPT rule = 10.25 days…arrow_forwardWith the aid of examples, fully discuss any five (5) political tactics used in organisations.arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License