In the current pandemic, researchers are working on creating antibody tests to determine which individuals have already had an infection caused by the COVID-19 virus.  If someone has been infected, then they will have certain antibodies in their system and the hope is that a highly accurate test can be created to detect these antibodies.   Assume a researcher creates a new antibody test, which for individuals who are known to have had the infection in the past and thus truly have the COVID-19 antibodies, gives a positive result 95% of the time.  This same test gives a negative result 90% of time for people who do not have the antibodies.  Assume that COVID-19 has affected 5% of the population in the region of interest.  What is the probability someone has NOT been infected previously given that their antibody test result comes back positive?  [four decimals]

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
icon
Related questions
Topic Video
Question

In the current pandemic, researchers are working on creating antibody tests to determine which individuals have already had an infection caused by the COVID-19 virus.  If someone has been infected, then they will have certain antibodies in their system and the hope is that a highly accurate test can be created to detect these antibodies.  

Assume a researcher creates a new antibody test, which for individuals who are known to have had the infection in the past and thus truly have the COVID-19 antibodies, gives a positive result 95% of the time.  This same test gives a negative result 90% of time for people who do not have the antibodies.  Assume that COVID-19 has affected 5% of the population in the region of interest. 

What is the probability someone has NOT been infected previously given that their antibody test result comes back positive?  [four decimals]

Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 5 steps with 19 images

Blurred answer
Knowledge Booster
Discrete Probability Distributions
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, probability and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
Probability
ISBN:
9780134753119
Author:
Sheldon Ross
Publisher:
PEARSON
A First Course in Probability
A First Course in Probability
Probability
ISBN:
9780321794772
Author:
Sheldon Ross
Publisher:
PEARSON