A forensic scientist recovers two biological traces from the crime scene. A DNA analysis of each of the traces produces two different DNA profiles, each of a single individual. The DNA profile of trace 1 has a match probability of 1 in 1 million and the DNA profile of trace 2 has a match probability of 1 in 200,000. The profile of trace 1 is searched in a local DNA database and produces exactly 1 hit with individual Y. This DNA database contains 100,000 individuals (i.e., n = 100,000) out of the 2 million individuals making up the population of potential sources in this case (i.e., N = 2 million). What likelihood ratio do you assign to these results for the following pair of propositions? Hp: At least one of the traces came from individual Y. Hd: Neither of the traces came from individual Y. In this likelihood ratio assignment please assume that if proposition Hp is true, then it is a priori equally probable for individual Y to be the source of trace 1 as it is for individual Y to be the source of trace 2. (Please round your answer to the nearest digit so that there are no numbers after the decimal point.) Group of answer choices 1,052,631 526,316 210,526 105,263

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Author:Amos Gilat
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A forensic scientist recovers two biological traces from the crime scene. A DNA analysis of each of the traces
produces two different DNA profiles, each of a single individual. The DNA profile of trace 1 has a match
probability of 1 in 1 million and the DNA profile of trace 2 has a match probability of 1 in 200,000. The profile
of trace 1 is searched in a local DNA database and produces exactly 1 hit with individual Y. This DNA database
contains 100,000 individuals (i.e., n = 100,000) out of the 2 million individuals making up the population of
potential sources in this case (i.e., N = 2 million). What likelihood ratio do you assign to these results for the
following pair of propositions?
Hp: At least one of the traces came from individual Y.
Hd: Neither of the traces came from individual Y.
In this likelihood ratio assignment please assume that if proposition Hp is true, then it is a priori equally
probable for individual Y to be the source of trace 1 as it is for individual Y to be the source of trace 2.
(Please round your answer to the nearest digit so that there are no numbers after the decimal point.)
Group of answer choices
1,052,631
526,316
210,526
105,263
Transcribed Image Text:A forensic scientist recovers two biological traces from the crime scene. A DNA analysis of each of the traces produces two different DNA profiles, each of a single individual. The DNA profile of trace 1 has a match probability of 1 in 1 million and the DNA profile of trace 2 has a match probability of 1 in 200,000. The profile of trace 1 is searched in a local DNA database and produces exactly 1 hit with individual Y. This DNA database contains 100,000 individuals (i.e., n = 100,000) out of the 2 million individuals making up the population of potential sources in this case (i.e., N = 2 million). What likelihood ratio do you assign to these results for the following pair of propositions? Hp: At least one of the traces came from individual Y. Hd: Neither of the traces came from individual Y. In this likelihood ratio assignment please assume that if proposition Hp is true, then it is a priori equally probable for individual Y to be the source of trace 1 as it is for individual Y to be the source of trace 2. (Please round your answer to the nearest digit so that there are no numbers after the decimal point.) Group of answer choices 1,052,631 526,316 210,526 105,263
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