Decision Making Under UncertaintyIn the Table, we apply the concept of Maximax choice, the Maxmin choice, andthe equally likely choice. Given the data/information in the Table, compute for therow average. After that, determine the amount of the ROW AVERAGE that wouldbe adopted to be best alternative. The best alternative is the alternative with thehighest value of the row average. In this case, which option is more attractive?Values in PhPState of NatureFavorable Unfavorable MaximumMarketMinimum inRowAlternativesMarketin RowRowAverageProject A80,000.0020,000.00 80,000.0020,000.00Project B40,000.0025,000.00 40,000.0025,000.00Project C30,000.00 10,000.0030,000.00 10,000.00Project D (DoNothing)

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Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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For a given perishable product, a retailer pays $5 for each unit, then sells them for $10 each. At the end of the day, units not sold at the store are disposed of, and the retailer receives just $1 for each. Given the following probability distribution describing daily demand, how many units should be stocked? x Prob. (Demand = x) x Prob. (Demand = x) 0 0.01 7 0.18 1 0.02 8 0.14 2 0.04 9 0.09 3 0.07 10 0.05 4 0.09 11 0.02 5 0.12 12 0.01 6 0.15 13 0.01
true or false 9. The second-degree stochastic dominance is better than the firstdegree stochastic dominance when evaluating the highest expected utility.
The preference of an agents on lotteries can be represented by an expected utility function u such that u(x) = 3y^1/2 -10. Then the agent is A) not risk averse B) risk loving C) risk neutral D) risk averse E) NOPAC
For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are: Monthly Proportion of All Shipments Received On Time 80 81 85 83 84 86 85 85 82 81 85 84 Estimate the average of MSE of a three-month moving average and an exponential smoothingfor α = 0.3. Group of answer choices 1.24 2.4 3.56 4.25 4.58
The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 85 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Vaidy Jayaraman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Vaidy believes that the distribution of sales may range from 65 to 85 units, according to the following probability model: Demand Probability 65 0.05 Stock 65 70 75 80 85 70 0.25 This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $107. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $30. a) Based on the given information, Vaidy's conditional profits table for the bookstore is: Demand 75 P=0.30 65 P = 0.05 0000 70 P = 0.25 75 0.30 ☐☐☐☐ 80 0.15 00000 80 85 P = 0.15 P = 0.25 30000 85 0.25 ☐☐☐☐
Andrew Thomas, a sandwich vendor at hard rock café annual rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and state of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives Large stock average stock small stock probabilities associated with states of nature are Big Big 35000 20000 10500 0.3 State of nature (demand) Average Small 15000 10000 8000 Average 0.5 determine the alternative that gives Andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV) compute the extpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Small -3000 5000 3000 0.2
An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…
Deborah Holwager, a concessionaire for the Amway Center in Orlando, has developed a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and states of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives States of Nature (size of crowd) Large Average Small Large Inventory Ave yge Inventory Smal Inventory $12,000 -51,000 $18,000 $15.000 $16,000 $4,000 $10,000 $5,000 Probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.35 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an average crowd, and 0.15 for a small crowd. $6.000 a) The alternative that provides Deborah the greatest oxpected monetary value (EMV) is The EMV for this decision is s (enter your answer as a whole number).
10 Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (i.e., afraid to leave their homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Fokh each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the robbery rate was in New Orleans during the same year: ! 1 F1 A 1 option Year Number of Patients Robbery Rate per 1,000 Population The simple linear regression equation that shows the best relationship between the number of patients and the robbery rate is (round your responses to three decimal places): ŷ=0+0x N @ 2 W S X command A where y Number of Patients and x = Robbery Rate. In year 11, if the robbery rate increases to 133.40, using trend analysis, the number of patients Dr. Fok will see = patients (round your response to two decimal places). In year 11, if the robbery rate decreases to 90.6, using trend analysis, the number of patients Dr. Fok will see = patients (round your response to two decimal places). #3 80 F3 E D $ 4 C 888…
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…
3
Construct a decision tree and answer the following questions: What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected? What is the expected value with perfect information? What is the expected value of perfect information?

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