Multiple Choice O 0.18 0.44 0.57 0.65 0.82

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Multiple Choice
O
O
O
0.18
0.44
0.57
0.65
0.82
Transcribed Image Text:Multiple Choice O O O 0.18 0.44 0.57 0.65 0.82
Alternative
A1
A2
Prior Probability
State of Nature
S1
S2
-40
100
0.4
75
0
0.6
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When
the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature
is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
Transcribed Image Text:Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
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