MC Qu. 9-73 Refer to the following payoff...Refer to the following payoff table:AlternativeA1A2Prior ProbabilityState of NatureS1S2-401000.47500.6There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, theresearch will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.Given that the research is done, what is the joint probability that the state of nature is S2 and the research predicts S2? Multiple ChoiceOOO0.080.160.240.320.36

Given- Alternative S1 S2 A1 75 -40 A2 0 100 Prior Probability 0.6 0.4

Answered: MC Qu. 9-73 Refer to the following…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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H2.
The University of Miami bookstore stocks textbooks in preparation for sales each semester. It normally relies on departmental forecasts and preregistration records to determine how many copies of a text are needed. Preregistration shows 85 operations management students enrolled, but bookstore manager Vaidy Jayaraman has second thoughts, based on his intuition and some historical evidence. Vaidy believes that the distribution of sales may range from 65 to 85 units, according to the following probability model: Demand Probability 65 0.05 Stock 65 70 75 80 85 70 0.25 This textbook costs the bookstore $82 and sells for $107. Any unsold copies can be returned to the publisher, less a restocking fee and shipping, for a net refund of $30. a) Based on the given information, Vaidy's conditional profits table for the bookstore is: Demand 75 P=0.30 65 P = 0.05 0000 70 P = 0.25 75 0.30 ☐☐☐☐ 80 0.15 00000 80 85 P = 0.15 P = 0.25 30000 85 0.25 ☐☐☐☐
The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): Decision Alternative Manufacture, d₁ Purchase, d₂ Low Demand $1 -100 50 State of Nature Medium Demand S2 200 225 High Demand S3 500 350 MA The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(s₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
Andrew Thomas, a sandwich vendor at hard rock café annual rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and state of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives Large stock average stock small stock probabilities associated with states of nature are Big Big 35000 20000 10500 0.3 State of nature (demand) Average Small 15000 10000 8000 Average 0.5 determine the alternative that gives Andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV) compute the extpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Small -3000 5000 3000 0.2
true or false Some speculative risks are insurable (T) The possibility of not meeting the annual sales target of one million dollar set by the top management is an example of strategic risk. ABC Insurance Company plans to sell fire insurance in Kedah. ABC expects that eight buildings out of every 100, on average, will report claims each year. The variation between the loss that ABC expects to occur and the loss that actually occurs can be measured by range, variance, standard deviation or coefficient of variation A total loss to the car that could happen to a driver as a result of a collision is an example of pure risk.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…
Sami Abbasi Health Food stocks five loaves of Vita-Bread. The probability distribution for the sales of VitaBread is listed in the following table. How many loaves will Sami sell on the average?Number of Loaves Sold Probability0 .051 .152 .203 .254 .205 .15
3
Wn Health Clinic needs to order influenza vaccines for the next flu season. The Clinic charges its patients $16.00 per vaccination and each dose of vaccine costs the clinic $4.00 to purchase. The Center for Disease Control has a long standing policy of buying back unused vaccines for $1.00 per dose. The Clinic estimates the following probability distribution for the season's demand. Demand 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Probability 0.04 0.22 0.24 0.41 0.09 D a. How many vaccines should the Clinic order to maximize its expected profit? The Clinic should order vaccines because it yields the maximum expected profit of $ (Enter your responses rounded to the nearest whole number.) LO
No probabilities are known for the occurrence of the nature states. Compare the solutions obtained by each of the following criteria: Hurwitz (assume that alpha = 0.8)
Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.
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