MC Qu. 9-74 Refer to the following payoff... Refer to the following payoff table: Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
MC Qu. 9-74 Refer to the following payoff... Refer to the following payoff table: Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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56 iS THE WRONG ANSWER
![Multiple Choice
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0.4
0.44
0.56
0.6](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fca4639e1-ad6a-4442-8c8c-fb1994ba5fd4%2F4797e5e5-79b4-44bd-bb9b-27cba449990c%2F4dr17y_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Multiple Choice
0.32
0.4
0.44
0.56
0.6
![MC Qu. 9-74 Refer to the following payoff...
Refer to the following payoff table:
Alternative
A1
A2
Prior Probability
State of Nature
S1
S2
-40
100
0.4
75
0
0.6
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the
research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fca4639e1-ad6a-4442-8c8c-fb1994ba5fd4%2F4797e5e5-79b4-44bd-bb9b-27cba449990c%2F12uamkv_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:MC Qu. 9-74 Refer to the following payoff...
Refer to the following payoff table:
Alternative
A1
A2
Prior Probability
State of Nature
S1
S2
-40
100
0.4
75
0
0.6
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the
research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S1?
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