The proposed Ghana Airways Airline project is being procured through a Public-Private Partnership (PPP). In the PPP procurement process, two companies (the SPVs-special purpose vehicles), ‘A’ and ‘B’ with each having 0.5% chances of selection. The risks analysis document reveals that SPV ‘A’ has 0.4 risk of performance failure, whiles SPV ‘B’ has 0.3 risk of performance failure. Using Decision Tree Analysis, as a project manager, critically assess the options and advise on the best SPV to be chosen.
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The proposed Ghana Airways Airline project is being procured through a Public-Private
Using Decision Tree Analysis, as a project manager, critically assess the options and advise on the best SPV to be chosen.
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- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
- The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): Decision Alternative Manufacture, d₁ Purchase, d₂ Low Demand $1 -100 50 State of Nature Medium Demand S2 200 225 High Demand S3 500 350 MA The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(s₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?The medical team at Birzeit Hospital are not sure whether to buy the COVID-19 vaccine from supplier A, B, or C. The analysis of previous experience dealing with the three suppliers reveals the following vaccine quality: Percent of ineffective vaccines Probability for Supplier A Probability for Supplier B Probability for Supplier C 2 0.60 0.50 0.70 5 0.30 0.30 0.00 7 0.10 0.20 0.30 The hospital buys 25000 vaccines each year which means that the probability to get 2% ineffective vaccines is 0.60 from supplier A, 0.50 from supplier B, and 0.70 from supplier C. Develop a decision tree to show your recommended alternative (supplier).
- Decision Making Under Uncertainty In the Table, we apply the concept of Maximax choice, the Maxmin choice, and the equally likely choice. Given the data/information in the Table, compute for the row average. After that, determine the amount of the ROW AVERAGE that would be adopted to be best alternative. The best alternative is the alternative with the highest value of the row average. In this case, which option is more attractive? Values in PhP State of Nature Favorable Unfavorable Maximum Market Minimum in Row Alternatives Market in Row Row Average Project A 80,000.00 20,000.00 80,000.00 20,000.00 Project B 40,000.00 25,000.00 40,000.00 25,000.00 Project C 30,000.00 10,000.00 30,000.00 10,000.00 Project D (Do Nothing)Leah Johnson, director of Urgent Care of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide low-cost flu shots but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time nurse or by using part-time nurses. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: States of Nature (demand) Alternatives Low Medium High Hire full−time $320 $480 $700 Hire part−time $0 $340 $800 Probabilities 0.20 0.55 0.25 Part 2 a) The alternative with the least expected cost is ▼ a. Hire full-time b. Hire part-time The expected price of this alternative is $_______ (enter your answer as a whole number). Part 4 b) The appropriate decision tree for Leah Johnson is presented in Figure____?Bimala is interested in buying a new house and has found a house she likes in Surry Hills. Bimala comes to you for advice about which of the following items would pass to her automatically if she buys the house: • A plastic bird bath which rest on the ground in the back garden; • A concrete swimming pool in the back garden; • A tapestry attached by small tapestry nails to the wall of the living room; and • A barbecue on wheels on the back deck. Advise Bimala. In your advice, please ensure that you refer to relevant case law. *NOTE: This is business law question. can you write more details about the question and answer.
- Wheels Distributors sells three types of tires to the commercial market. Type A. Type B and Type C. The anticipated payoffs are as follows for the three types of tires. Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Tire Type A $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 B $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 C -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 Construct a decision tree to help the management of Wheel Distributor make the appropriate decisions. This tree MUST be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs. Given the probabilities for the three types of tires and the expected monetary values, what decision should be made and what is that optimal expected value? What is the most should the firm be willing to pay to obtain further (perfect) information (EVPI) concerning the demand for the tires? 4. What decision should the firm…A transfer-pricing method leads to goal congruence when managers: a. act in their own best interest and the decision is in the short-term best interest of the company b. act in their own best interest and the decision is in the long-term best interest of the manager's subunit c. act in their own best interest and the decision is in the long-term best interest of the company d. always act in their own best interestBenetton is studying two alternative contracts with a retailer for a seasonal product, Revenue-Sharing contract and Quantity Flexibility contract. Attributes and terms of the two contracts are presented below. Profit Sharing Contract: Benetton production cost is $20, and it charges the retailer a low wholesale price of $25. The retailer prices to the customers at $55 per unit. The retailer forecasts demand to be normally distributed, with a mean of 4,000 and standard deviation of 1,600. Any unsold product are discounted to $15, and all sell at this price. The retailer will share 30% of the revenue with Bennetton, keeping 70% for itself. Quantity Flexibility Contract: If the retailer orders O units, Benneton is willing to provide up to another 35% if needed. Benetton's production cost is $20, and it charges the retailer a wholesale price of $36. The retailer prices to the customers at $55 per unit. Any unsold units can be sold by the retailer at a salvage value of $25. Bennetton can…