d). - Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is much higher? Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the e) Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).

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I posted this question and it's been 18 hours that it still hasn't been answered. I only need the last two questions please (: 

**Problem #1**

The table below shows the actual sales of a Product X sold by Company Y from January to December of 2019.

| Month  | Actual Sales (# of Product X) | Naïve Forecast - Sales (# of Product X) | Absolute Value of Errors |
|--------|-----------------------------|----------------------------------------|---------------------------|
| Jan/19 | 1,860                       |                                        |                           |
| Feb/19 | 2,033                       |                                        |                           |
| Mar/19 | 3,556                       |                                        |                           |
| Apr/19 | 4,211                       |                                        |                           |
| May/19 | 6,250                       |                                        |                           |
| Jun/19 | 7,990                       |                                        |                           |
| Jul/19 | 10,250                      |                                        |                           |
| Aug/19 | 9,850                       |                                        |                           |
| Sep/19 | 9,980                       |                                        |                           |
| Oct/19 | 9,990                       |                                        |                           |
| Nov/19 | 7,895                       |                                        |                           |
| Dec/19 | 5,353                       |                                        |                           |
| Jan/20 |                             |                                        |                           |

a) Explain the calculation method for the Naïve Forecast model.

b) If at the end of every month from January/2019 to December/2019, the Sales Manager would have applied the Naïve Model, calculate the Naïve Forecast values for the months of February/2019 and all the way to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above.

c) Calculate the Absolute Value of Error for every forecasted month, from February/2019 to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above.

d) Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is much higher?

e) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).
Transcribed Image Text:**Problem #1** The table below shows the actual sales of a Product X sold by Company Y from January to December of 2019. | Month | Actual Sales (# of Product X) | Naïve Forecast - Sales (# of Product X) | Absolute Value of Errors | |--------|-----------------------------|----------------------------------------|---------------------------| | Jan/19 | 1,860 | | | | Feb/19 | 2,033 | | | | Mar/19 | 3,556 | | | | Apr/19 | 4,211 | | | | May/19 | 6,250 | | | | Jun/19 | 7,990 | | | | Jul/19 | 10,250 | | | | Aug/19 | 9,850 | | | | Sep/19 | 9,980 | | | | Oct/19 | 9,990 | | | | Nov/19 | 7,895 | | | | Dec/19 | 5,353 | | | | Jan/20 | | | | a) Explain the calculation method for the Naïve Forecast model. b) If at the end of every month from January/2019 to December/2019, the Sales Manager would have applied the Naïve Model, calculate the Naïve Forecast values for the months of February/2019 and all the way to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. c) Calculate the Absolute Value of Error for every forecasted month, from February/2019 to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. d) Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is much higher? e) Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).
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