A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states ofnature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states ofnature.O TrueO False* PreviousNext ►MacBook Air000000DDF7セゴF5$&レ9* 00

Answered: A decision tree is a graphic display of…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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GENERATE THE DECISION VARIABLE SOLUTION AND GENERATE A SENSITIVITY REPORT CASE 1. Julia's Food Booth Julia Robertson is a senior at Tech, and she's investigating different ways to finance her final year at school. She is considering leasing a food booth outside the Tech stadium at home football games. Tech sells out every home game, and Julia knows, from attending the games herself, that everyone eats a lot of food. She has to pay $1,000 per game for a booth, and the booths are not very large. Vendors can sell either food or drinks on Tech property, but not both. Only the Tech athletic department concession stands can sell both inside the stadium. She thinks slices of cheese pizza, hot dogs, and barbecue sandwiches are the most popular food items among fans and so these are the items she would sell. Most food items are sold during the hour before the game starts and during half time; thus it will not be possible for Julia to prepare the food while she is selling it. She must prepare…
1) A decision maker using an exponential utility function would prefer a random payoff with an expected value of X to a certain payoff of X. True False 2) In a decision tree, a circular node indicates a point where a random event occurs. True False 3) The optimistic and conservative approaches to decision making will always give the same result. True False
Decision theory under conditions of risk and uncertainty lends itself to severalmathematical techniques. Examine the difference maximin decision criterion and minimax regret decision criterion.
Senior executives at an oil company are trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular field. It costs the company $750,000 to drill. The company estimates that if oil is found the estimated value will be $3,650,000. At present, the company believes that there is a 48% chance that the field actually contains oil. Before drilling, the company can hire an expert at a cost of $75,000 to perform tests to make a prediction of whether oil is present. Based on a similar test, the probability that the test will predict oil on the field is 0.55. The probability of actually finding oil when oil was predicted is 0.85. The probability of actually finding oil when no oil was predicted is 0.2. What is the EMV if the company hires the expert?
Bias in decision-making happens without a thought in most decisions. Identify a recent or current event in which you think bias was evident in the decision-making process surrounding that event.
Apply the PACED decision-making model to a decision you will need to make about your life after high school. You should: define the problem; complete a PACED grid with at least 3 alternatives and 5 criteria; explain how you define (+), (-), and (x) in your evaluation; explain your final decision.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…
Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…
What is the advantages of using predictive analyctics? Explain in 250 words. Say that it improves decision making, making competitive advantage, improves risk management, and others.
A GMAC MBA new-matriculants survey provided the following data for 2018 students. Excel File: data04-53.xlsx Applied to More Than One School Yes No 23 and under 207 201 24-26 299 379 Age Group 27-30 185 268 31-35 66 193 36 and over 51 169 a. Given that a person applied to more than one school, what is the probability that the person is 24 - 26 years old (to 2 decimals)? b. Given that a person is in the 36 and over age group, what is the probability that the person applied to more than one school (to 4 decimals)? c. What is the probability that a person is 24 - 26 years old or applied to more than one school (to 4 decimals)? d. Suppose a person is known to have applied to only one school. What is the probability that the person is 31 or more years old (to 4 decimals)? e. Is the number of schools applied to independent of age? Explain. Select your answer -

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A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True False