What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected?  What is the expected value with perfect information?  What is the expected value of perfect information?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Construct a decision tree and answer the following questions:  

  1. What is the EMV of each decision alternative?
  2. Which action should be selected? 
  3. What is the expected value with perfect information? 
  4. What is the expected value of perfect information? 
The table illustrates the outcomes and probabilities associated with different alternatives under various States of Nature, focusing on gas pricing scenarios. 

### States of Nature

**Columns:**
1. **Lower gas prices**
   - Probability: 0.25
2. **Gas prices unchanged**
   - Probability: 0.45
3. **Higher gas prices**
   - Probability: 0.30

### Alternatives

**Rows & Corresponding Outcomes:**

1. **Small**
   - Lower gas prices: $16,000
   - Gas prices unchanged: $17,000
   - Higher gas prices: $23,000

2. **Medium**
   - Lower gas prices: $17,500
   - Gas prices unchanged: $21,000
   - Higher gas prices: $18,500

3. **Large**
   - Lower gas prices: $24,500
   - Gas prices unchanged: $16,000
   - Higher gas prices: $8,500

This table is useful for decision-making in business planning scenarios involving fluctuating gas prices, illustrating how each alternative can affect financial outcomes under different probability-weighted price conditions.
Transcribed Image Text:The table illustrates the outcomes and probabilities associated with different alternatives under various States of Nature, focusing on gas pricing scenarios. ### States of Nature **Columns:** 1. **Lower gas prices** - Probability: 0.25 2. **Gas prices unchanged** - Probability: 0.45 3. **Higher gas prices** - Probability: 0.30 ### Alternatives **Rows & Corresponding Outcomes:** 1. **Small** - Lower gas prices: $16,000 - Gas prices unchanged: $17,000 - Higher gas prices: $23,000 2. **Medium** - Lower gas prices: $17,500 - Gas prices unchanged: $21,000 - Higher gas prices: $18,500 3. **Large** - Lower gas prices: $24,500 - Gas prices unchanged: $16,000 - Higher gas prices: $8,500 This table is useful for decision-making in business planning scenarios involving fluctuating gas prices, illustrating how each alternative can affect financial outcomes under different probability-weighted price conditions.
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