a)
To decide: What should BR Company do to maximize profit.
Introduction:
Decision tree:
A decision tree can be termed as map of all the possible outcomes that can arise from the series of related choices. It will allow an individual or an organization to weigh their outcomes in different bases of costs, probabilities and the benefits.
Expected monetary value (EMV):
Expected monetary value is the figure which shows the reasonable returns that can be received from a situation. It can be termed as an average of the best case scenario. It will include both the returns and the likelihood of that particular outcome occurring.
b)
To determine: The expected payoff for the given information.
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Chapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (12th Edition)
- Cheryl Druehl Retailers, Inc., must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location in Fairfax. Demand at the location will either be low or high, with probabilities 0.6 and 0.4, respectively. If Cheryl builds a small facility and demand proves to be high, she then has the option of expanding the facility. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, and then the retailer expands the facility, the payoff is $290,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, but Cheryl then decides not to expand the facility, the payoff is $253,000. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be low, then there is no option to expand and the payoff is $220,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, Cheryl then has the option of stimulating demand through local advertising. If she does not exercise this option, then the payoff is $35,000. If she does exercise the advertising option, then the response to advertising will…arrow_forwardPhillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes that the probability in any year of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks is 3%. Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately $480,000. He estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managing an additional supplier is $16,000 per year, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearly identical local suppliers are available. Find the EMV for alternatives using 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. EMV(1)=$54,40054,400 (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(2)= ? $ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(3)= ? $ (Enter your response…arrow_forwardPhillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes that the probability in any year of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks is 2%. Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately $480,000. He estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managing an additional supplier is $14,800 per year, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearly identical local suppliers are available. Find the EMV for alternatives using 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. EMV(1) = $ whole number.) EMV (2)=$_ EMV(3)=$ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest Based on the EMV value, the best choice to use is... a. one supplier b. two suppliersarrow_forward
- A retailer must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at the location can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff = $223,000) or to expand (payoff = $270,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is $200,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing ($40,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff is estimated to be only $20,000; the payoff grows to $220,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is $800,000.Draw a decision tree. Then analyze it to determine the…arrow_forwardHemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D…arrow_forwardJohnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each hasa " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%.a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?arrow_forward
- Problem 1: A government committee is considering the economic benefits of a program of preventative flu vaccinations. We will assume that the flu vaccine is completely effective so if the vaccine is implemented, there will be no flu cases. It is estimated that a vaccination program will cost $9 million and that the probability of flu striking in the next year is 0.70. If vaccinations are not introduced then the estimated cost to the government if flu strikes in the next year is $7 million with probability 0.15, $10 million with probability 0.25 and $15 million with probability 0.6. One alternative open to the committee is to institute an "early-warning" monitoring scheme (costing $3 million) which will enable it to detect an outbreak of flu early and therefore decide whether or not to institute a rush vaccination program (costing $12 million because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads, again with the vaccine being completely effective) or to do nothing with…arrow_forwardThe owner of the Columbia Construction Company must decide between building a housing development, constructing a shopping center, and leasing all the company’s equipment to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable or increase. The profit from each alternative, given the two possibilities for material costs, is shown in the following payoff table: Material Costs Decision Stable Increase Houses $70,000 $30,000 Shopping center 105,000 20,000 Leasing 40,000 40,000 Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz e. Equal likelihoodarrow_forwardMark Ewing has decided to enter contract with uber service provider in his area. The driver offers a car variety of mileage or distance to be travelled to him. All contracts were to be signed for three years. The first option has a monthly rent of P3,000, with a total mileage allowance of 36,000 kilometers (an average of 12,000 kilometers per year) and a cost of P35 per kilometer for any kilometers over 36,000. The following table summarizes each of the Uber Service Contract offered to him: 3-Year Contract Monthly Cost Mileage Allowance Cost Per Excess Kilometer Option A P3,000 30,000 P 35 Option B P3,500 45,000 P 25 Option C P4,000 54,000 P 15 Mark has estimated that, during the 3 years of the agreement, there is a 40% chance he will drive an average of 12,000 kilometers per year, a 30% chance he will drive an average of 15,000 miles per year, and a 30% chance that he will drive 18,000 miles per year. In evaluating the options, Mark would…arrow_forward
- Harley, an ice-cream vendor, purchases each pint of ice-cream for $7 and sells for $20 each. At the end of the week, the unsold ice-cream can be salvaged for $2 each. From past experience, Harley has estimated the sales probabilities as below. What is the optimal number of pints Harley should purchase? Number of Ice-creams Sold, Probability 1 = 0.05, 2 = 0.1, 3 = 0.2 , 4 = 0.25, 5 = 0.15, 6 = 0.1, 7 = 0.08, 8 = 0.07arrow_forwardA circus is scheduled to appear in a city on a given date. The profits obtained are heavily dependent on the weather which can be classified as "good" or" bad". The circus owners may choose to setup operations in a large open field that is centrally located or rent a small building to stage a small version of the circus. The small building is not expected to be adversely affected by bad weather – thus will not affect the circus for it is well secure and has covered parking for the guests. The following shows the profits of the options and states of nature: States of nature Decision alternatives Set up in field Rent small building | Probability Good Bad $14,500 $5,000 -$15,000 $4,000 P(G)=0.5 P(B)=0.5 The circus owners may choose to delay the decision until the day before the event is due. At this time they can obtain the one-day weather report (free) which is usually reliable. This delay will however increase their set up cost by $1000.00 or if they choose to rent, the rental cost will…arrow_forwardA firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40. 1- Compute the EVPI 2- Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P ( low demand )arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage Learning