Concept explainers
a)
To identify: The alternative that provides the greatest expected monetary value (EMV).
Introduction:
Expected monetary value (EMV):
Expected monetary value is the figure which shows the reasonable returns that can be received from a situation. It can be termed as an average of the best case scenario. It will include both the returns and the likelihood of that particular outcome occurring.
b)
To calculate: The expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
Introduction:
Expected monetary value (EMV):
Expected monetary value is the figure which shows the reasonable returns that can be received from a situation. It can be termed as an average of the best case scenario. It will include both the returns and the likelihood of that particular outcome occurring.
Expected value of perfect information (EVPI):
The expected value of perfect information can be termed as the additional value a person would be willing to pay to procure the perfect information.
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solutionChapter A Solutions
Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (12th Edition)
- The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?arrow_forwardScenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?arrow_forward
- The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire. Management must decide whether to renew the lease for another 10 years or to relocate near the site of a proposed motel. The town planning board is currently debating the merits of granting approval to the motel. A consultant has estimated the net present value of Theme Park's two alternatives under each state of nature as shown below. Suppose that the management of Theme Park, Inc., has decided that there is a 0.40 probability that the motel's application will be approved. Motel Motel Options Rejected $4,500,000 300,000 Approved Renew $ 600,000 Relocate 2,500,000 а-1. If management uses maximum expected monetary value as the decision criterion, calculate expected monetary value for the alternatives "Renew" and "Relocate". Alternative Expected Value Renew Relocatearrow_forward4. Vacation Inns is a chain of hotels operating in the southwestern part of the United States. The company uses a toll-free telephone number to make reservations for any of its hotels. The average time to handle each call is 3 minutes, and an average of 12 calls are received per hour. The probability distribution that describes the arrivals is unknown. Over a period of time it is determined that the average caller spends 6 minutes either on hold or receiving service. Find the average time in the queue, the average time in the system, the average number in the queue, and the average number in the system.arrow_forwardAlternative Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 State of Nature Outcome 1 ($) 800 500 700 0.62 Probability according to the payoff table? OEMV (Alternative 1) = $900 EMV (Alternative 3) is the highest EMV EMV (Alternative 2) = EMV (Alternative 3) EMV (Alternative 1) is the highest EMV Outcome 2 ($) 1000 1200 900 0.38 Which of the following statements is correctarrow_forward
- Grocers Inc. is considering offering a purified water service through a contract company that would locate a machine on the inside of the market store. There are two contract companies Grocers Inc. is considering, ClearWater and PureVida. ClearWater would charge an annual lease fee of $800 for set-up of the machine and for this machine, there is a utility cost of $0.10 for every gallon of water dispensed and ClearWater charges $0.05 for maintenance. For PureVida, the annual lease fee is $700, the utility cost is $0.12 for every gallon and PureVida charges $0.06 for maintenance. Grocers Inc. customers would purchase refilled gallons of water for $0.97.a. What is the annual break-even point for each option?b. At what volume in number of gallons would the two options have the same cost?c. At what forecasted volume should Grocers Inc. select ClearWater and what volume should they select PureVida and why?arrow_forwardA firm is weighing three capacity alternatives: small, medium, and large job shop.Whatever capacity choice is made, the market for the firm’s product can be “moderate”or “strong.” The probability of moderate acceptance is estimated to be 40%; strongacceptance has a probability of 60%. The payoffs are as follows. Small job shop,moderate market = $24,000; Small job shop, strong market = $54,000. Medium job shop,moderate market = $20,000; medium job shop, strong market = $64,000.Large job shop,moderate market = -$2,000; large job shop, strong market = $96,000. Which capacitychoice should the firm make?arrow_forwardMegaJoy Corp. is planning to open a new video arcade. It has narrowed the choices to a large or small arcade.(All costs and revenues in this problem are expressed in thousands of dollars.) The cost of a large arcade is $400, and the cost of a small arcade is $300.It has forecast that the demand will be low with probability 0.3 and high with probability 0.7.If MegaJoy builds a small arcade and the demand is high, then it expects revenues of $540. If MegaJoy builds a large arcade and the demand is low, then it has two alternatives: do nothing and earn revenue of $380, or reduce prices and earn revenues of $450. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. Which choice yields the maximum expected money value?( Show calculation) c. A consulting firm has offered to perform reseach and forecast the demand fo MegaJoy. The firm will charge $8(thouthand) for its services, and it claims that the information will be 100% accurate. Should MegaJoy pay for the consulting services? Justify your…arrow_forward
- The XYZ manufacturing company is considering replacing one of its metal cutting machine which can be sold today for $3,000. If they kept this machine for 4 more years, its salvage value will be zero. The challenger costs $18,000, and its life is 4 years. The estimated salvage value of the challenger at the end of four years is $6,000. Should the XYZ company replace the old machine? Use the opportunity cost approach with rate of return of 10%. Assume operating costs per year for defender equals $2,000 and a saving in operating costs per year of 75% for challenger.arrow_forwardCool Beans is a locally owned coffeeshop that competes with two large coffee chains, PlanetEuro and Frothies. Alicia, the owner, is considering two different marketing promotions and thinks that CLV analysis will help her decide the best course of action. An average specialty coffee drink sells for $4.26 and has a margin of 83%. One promotion is providing loyalty cards to her regular customers that would give them one free specialty coffee drink after 10 regular purchases. Alicia estimates that this will increase the frequency of their purchases by 14%. Currently, her customers average buying 2 specialty drinks per week. The second promotion is targeted at new customers. She would offer a free specialty drink to incoming college freshmen by providing a coupon with their orientation packages. Because of her location near the college, she expects that 310 students will come to Cool Beans for a free trial. Of those, she anticipates that 16% will become regular customers who will…arrow_forward11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 -$90,000Minor renovation $40,000 -$20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.Part 2a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.A.MinorFavorable40,000Unfavorable-20,000UnfavorableFavorableMajor100,000-90,000Do…arrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage Learning