Financial institutions utilize prediction models to predict bankruptcy. One such model is the Altman Z- score model, which multiple corporate income and balance sheet values to measures the financial health of a company. If the model predicts a low Z- score value, the firm is in financial stress and is predicated to go bankrupt within the next two years. If the model predicts a moderate or high Z-score value, the firm is financially healthy and is predicated to be a nonbankrupt firm. The alternative hypothesis is that the firm is predicted to be a bankrupt firm.
a. Explain the risks associated with committing a Type I error in this case.
b. Explain the risks associate with committing a Type II error in this case.
c. Which type of error do you think executive want to avoid? Explain.
d. How would changes in the model affect the
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Basic Business Statistics, Student Value Edition (13th Edition)
- Financial analysts have developed models based on financial ratios that predict whether or not a company will go bankrupt within the next year. In a test of one such model, the model correctly predicted the bankruptcy of 88% of firms that in fact did fail. The model also correctly predicted the non-bankruptcy for 82% of firms that did not fail. Suppose that the model maintains the same reliability when applied to a new group of 82 firms, of which 7 fail in the year following the time at which the model makes its predictions. Define the event F as firm failure and event B as the outcome of a test for bankruptcy. Given this information, what is the probability that a firm will fail P(F)?arrow_forwardPursuing an MBA is a major personal investment. Tuition and expenses associated with business school programs are costly, but the high costs come with hopes of career advancement and high salaries. A prospective MBA student would like to examine the factors that impact starting salary upon graduation and decides to develop a model that uses program per-year tuition as a predictor of starting salary. Data were collected for 37 full-time MBA programs offered at private universities. The data are stored in the accompanying table. Complete parts (a) through (c) below. a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean starting salary upon graduation of an individual program with per-year tuition cost of $50,050. b. Construct a 95% prediction interval of the starting salary upon graduation of an individual program with per-year tuition cost of $50,050.arrow_forwardPursuing an MBA is a major personal investment. Tuition and expenses associated with business school programs are costly, but the high costs come with hopes of career advancement and high salaries. A prospective MBA student would like to examine the factors that impact starting salary upon graduation and decides to develop a model that uses program per-year tuition as a predictor of starting salary. Data were collected for 37 full-time MBA programs offered at private universities. The data are stored in the accompanying table. Complete parts (a) through (e) below. E Click the icon to view the data on program per-year tuition and mean starting salary. a. Construct a scatter plot. Choose the correct graph below. O A. OB. Oc. OD. 80,000- 200,000- 80,000- 200,000- 0- 0- 200,000 Starting Salary (S) 80,000 Tuilion ($) 200,000 Starting Salary (S) 80,000 Tuilion (S) b. Assuming a linear relationship, use the least-squares method to determine the regression coefficients b, and b,. bo =0 b, =0…arrow_forward
- A 1 Program Per-Year Tuition ($) 62486 68484 67888 HN34567000 2 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 67050 67792 66183 66648 69860 64013 63704 66855 62839 60049 57895 55895 53947 54645 53374 52975 49195 44629 47459 48355 47415 38386 48726 48050 51251 37376 32404 44246 40984 49238 33366 23635 41729 38862 B Mean Starting Salary Upon Graduation ($) 155737 154423 149313 143503 140925 153696 147799 149794 134756 147521 142518 143619 141792 138082 125249 114639 127846 127392 130064 123958 115916 111221 110846 106083 79315 79529 103321 74754 86946 72656 76078 53979 63709 102611 53719 81335 51657 U D E F Garrow_forwardPursuing an MBA is a major personal investment. Tuition and expenses associated with business school programs are costly, but the high costs come with hopes of career advancement and high salaries. A prospective MBA student would like to examine the factors that impact starting salary upon graduation and decides to develop a model that uses program per-year tuition as a predictor of starting salary. Data were collected for 37 full-time MBA programs offered at private universities. The data are stored in the accompanying table. Complete parts (a) through (e) below. Click the icon to view the data on program per year tution and mean starting salary a. Construct a scatter plot. Choose the correct graph below. 200,000- OB 200,000- 0- OC. 80,000 ○ D. 80,000- 80,000 200,000 200,000 Starting Salary ($) Starting Salary ($) 80,000 Tuition ($) b. Assuming a linear relationship, use the least-squares method to determine the regression coefficients by and by Tuition ($) by= (Round the value of by…arrow_forwardDiscuss. Difference between the assumptions of Harrod-Domar and the Solow-Swan models on the nature of capital and discuss as well its effects on their predictionsarrow_forward
- Dentists are increasingly concerned about the growing trend of local school districts to grant soft drink companies exclusive rights to install soda pop machines in schools in return for money-usually millions-that goes directly into school coffers. According to a recent study by the National Soft Drink Association, 62% of schools nationally already have such contracts. This comes at a time when dentists are seeing an alarming increase in horribly decayed teeth and eroded enamel in the mouths of teenagers and young adults. With ready access to soft drinks, children tend to drink them all day. That, combined with no opportunity to brush, leads to disaster, dentists say. Suppose that 20 schools around the country are randomly selected and asked if they have a soft drink contract. Find the probability that the number of 'Yes" answers is A. exactly 8 B. at most 8 C. at least 4 D. between 4 and 12, inclusivearrow_forwardHow will marketers change their social media use in the near future? A survey by Social Media Examiner reported that 77% of B2B marketers (marketers that focus primarily on attracting businesses) plan to increase their use of LinkedIn, as compared to 54% of B2C marketers (marketers that primarily target consumers). The survey was based on 1,184 B2B marketers and 1,703 B2C marketers. The following table summarizes the results: Give an example of a simple Give an example of a joint What is the complement of a marketer who plans to increase use of LinkedIn? Why is a marketer who plans to increase use of LinkedIn and is a B2C marketer a joint event?arrow_forwardGive at least three examples from economics where each of the following type of data can be used: cross-sectional data, time series data, and panel data.arrow_forward
- Corn crop yields vary by state. In 2008, IOWA averaged 172 bushels/acre. On September 3, 2009, the published market price per bushel was 319.25 cents/bushel. Jimmy Harold is analying a heavily leveraged purchase of some additional acreage, and his decision to purchase is based on the expected yield during his first crop year. After analyzing historical rainfall and long range weather forecasts, Jimmy compiled the following table of crop yields. rainfail yield(bu/acre) probability below average 154 0.15 average 172 0.4 above average 177 0.45 What is the expected corn crop yield, E[Y] based on the data in Jimmy's? E[Y] = (to 2 decimal places).arrow_forwardMany investors and financial analysts believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gives a good barometer of the overall stock market. On January 31, 2006, 9 of the 30 stocks making up the DJIA increased in price (The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2006). On the basis of this fact, a financial analyst claims we can assume that 30% of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) went up the same day.A sample of 50 stocks traded on the NYSE that day showed that 12 went up.You are conducting a study to see if the proportion of stocks that went up is significantly less than 0.3. You use a significance level of α=0.01.What is the test statistic for this sample? (Report answer accurate to three decimal places.)test statistic = What is the p-value for this sample? (Report answer accurate to four decimal places.)p-value = The p-value is... less than (or equal to) αα greater than αα This test statistic leads to a decision to... reject the null accept the null fail to…arrow_forwardMany investors and financial analysts believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gives a good barometer of the overall stock market. On January 31, 2006, 9 of the 30 stocks making up the DJIA increased in price (The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2006). On the basis of this fact, a financial analyst claims we can assume that 30% of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) went up the same day. A sample of 50 stocks traded on the NYSE that day showed that 18 went up. You are conducting a study to see if the proportion of stocks that went up is significantly more than 0.3. You use a significance level of a = 0.002. What is the test statistic for this sample? (Report answer accurate to three decimal places.) test statistic = What is the p-value for this sample? (Report answer accurate to four decimal places.) p-value = The p-value is... O less than (or equal to) a greater than a This test statistic leads to a decision to... O reject the null O accept the null O fail…arrow_forward
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