There are two possible causes for a breakdown of a machine. To check the first possibility would cost C 1 dollars, and, if that were the cause of the breakdown, the trouble could be repaired at a cost of R 1 dollars. Similarly, there are costs C 2 and R 2 associated with the second possibility. Let p and 1 − p denote, respectively, the probabilities that the breakdown is caused by the first and second possibilities. Under what conditions on p , C i , R i , i = 1 , 2 , should we check the first possible cause of breakdown and then the second, as opposed to reversing the checking order, so as to minimize the expected cost involved in returning the machine to working order? Note: If the first check is negative, we must still check the other possibility.
There are two possible causes for a breakdown of a machine. To check the first possibility would cost C 1 dollars, and, if that were the cause of the breakdown, the trouble could be repaired at a cost of R 1 dollars. Similarly, there are costs C 2 and R 2 associated with the second possibility. Let p and 1 − p denote, respectively, the probabilities that the breakdown is caused by the first and second possibilities. Under what conditions on p , C i , R i , i = 1 , 2 , should we check the first possible cause of breakdown and then the second, as opposed to reversing the checking order, so as to minimize the expected cost involved in returning the machine to working order? Note: If the first check is negative, we must still check the other possibility.
Solution Summary: The author explains how to find a condition on p,C_i, Rs, and i=1,2 that is required to minimize the expected cost involved
There are two possible causes for a breakdown of a machine. To check the first possibility would cost
C
1
dollars, and, if that were the cause of the breakdown, the trouble could be repaired at a cost of
R
1
dollars. Similarly, there are costs
C
2
and
R
2
associated with the second possibility. Let p and
1
−
p
denote, respectively, the probabilities that the breakdown is caused by the first and second possibilities. Under what conditions on
p
,
C
i
,
R
i
,
i
=
1
,
2
,
should we check the first possible cause of breakdown and then the second, as opposed to reversing the checking order, so as to minimize the expected cost involved in returning the machine to working order?
Note: If the first check is negative, we must still check the other possibility.
Suppose that Albert and Leo are in a contract dispute. Leo has
breached their contract and this has resulted in damages of
amount x to Albert. They can negotiate a settlement before they
go to trial. If they settle, they divide the gain in total surplus from
settling equally. Going to court costs each 1000 (and they are in
the "American" system).
Suppose that Albert anticipates that the court will find x to be 0
with probability and 20,000 with probability 4. Further,
suppose that Leo anticipates that the court will find x to be O
with probability ½ and 20,000 with probability %. Assume both
Albert and Leo are risk neutral and motivated by their expected
payoffs.
Part A: Will Albert and Leo settle? If so, what is the outcome? If
not, explain why.
Part B: Suppose now that Albert believes the court will find x to
be 0 with probability 1. Leo anticipates that the court will find x
to be 0 with probability % and 20,000 with probability %. If
Albert anticipates there is scope for settlement…
According to KRomenx, Snell, and Thompson, 2 the Land of Oz is blessed by many things, but not by good
weather. They never have two nice days in a row. If they have a nice day, they are just as likely to have snow
as rain the next day. If they have snow or rain, they have an even chance of having the same the next day. If
there is change from snow or rain, only half of the time is this a change to a nice day.
DRAW TRANSITION GRAPH AND PROBABLOLITY MATRIX
A risk averse individual faces uncertainty with two outcomes: good, bad. Theindividual has income $1260 at good and $840 at bad outcome. The probability of good outcome is 5/7 (so the probability of bad outcome is 1 – 5/7 = 2/7). The individual can buy any nonnegative x units of insurance. Every unit of insurance has price $p and it pays $1 in the event of bad outcome. In this insurance market, the unit price of insurance is known to be p = 2/3.
(a)Suppose the individual buys x units of insurance. Determine the individual's net income under good income, net income under bad income and the average net income. Draw these three in a diagram as functions of x.
(b) For the individual: (i) compare full insurance with over insurance and (ii) compare full insurance with partial insurance. Then determine best choice of insurance for the individual.
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, probability and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.
Discrete Distributions: Binomial, Poisson and Hypergeometric | Statistics for Data Science; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHhyy4JMigg;License: Standard Youtube License