A town council of 7 members contains a steering committee of size 3. New ideas for legislation go first to the steering committee and then on to the council as a whole if at least 2 of the 3 committee members approve the legislation. Once at the full council, the legislation requires a majority vote (of at least 4) to pass Consider a new piece of legislation, and suppose that each town council member will approve it, independently, with probability p. What is the probability that a given steering committee members vote is decisive in the sense that if that persons vote were reversed, then the final fate of the legislation would be reversed? What is the corresponding probability for a given council member not on the steering committee?
A town council of 7 members contains a steering committee of size 3. New ideas for legislation go first to the steering committee and then on to the council as a whole if at least 2 of the 3 committee members approve the legislation. Once at the full council, the legislation requires a majority vote (of at least 4) to pass Consider a new piece of legislation, and suppose that each town council member will approve it, independently, with probability p. What is the probability that a given steering committee members vote is decisive in the sense that if that persons vote were reversed, then the final fate of the legislation would be reversed? What is the corresponding probability for a given council member not on the steering committee?
Solution Summary: The author calculates the probability for a given council member not on the meeting committee.
A town council of 7 members contains a steering committee of size 3. New ideas for legislation go first to the steering committee and then on to the council as a whole if at least 2 of the 3 committee members approve the legislation. Once at the full council, the legislation requires a majority vote (of at least 4) to pass Consider a new piece of legislation, and suppose that each town council member will approve it, independently, with probability p. What is the probability that a given steering committee members vote is decisive in the sense that if that persons vote were reversed, then the final fate of the legislation would be reversed? What is the corresponding probability for a given council member not on the steering committee?
Q1. A group of five applicants for a pair of identical jobs consists of three men and two
women. The employer is to select two of the five applicants for the jobs. Let S
denote the set of all possible outcomes for the employer's selection. Let A denote
the subset of outcomes corresponding to the selection of two men and B the subset
corresponding to the selection of at least one woman. List the outcomes in A, B,
AUB, AN B, and An B. (Denote the different men and women by M₁, M2, M3
and W₁, W2, respectively.)
Q3 (8 points)
Q3. A survey classified a large number of adults according to whether they were diag-
nosed as needing eyeglasses to correct their reading vision and whether they use
eyeglasses when reading. The proportions falling into the four resulting categories
are given in the following table:
Use Eyeglasses for Reading
Needs glasses Yes
No
Yes
0.44
0.14
No
0.02
0.40
If a single adult is selected from the large group, find the probabilities of the events
defined below. The adult
(a) needs glasses.
(b) needs glasses but does not use them.
(c) uses glasses whether the glasses are needed or not.
4. (i) Let a discrete sample space be given by
N = {W1, W2, W3, W4},
and let a probability measure P on be given by
P(w1) = 0.2, P(w2) = 0.2, P(w3) = 0.5, P(wa) = 0.1.
Consider the random variables X1, X2 → R defined by
X₁(w1) = 1, X₁(w2) = 2,
X2(w1) = 2, X2 (w2) = 2,
Find the joint distribution of X1, X2.
(ii)
X1(W3) = 1, X₁(w4) = 1,
X2(W3) = 1, X2(w4) = 2.
[4 Marks]
Let Y, Z be random variables on a probability space (, F, P).
Let the random vector (Y, Z) take on values in the set [0, 1] x [0,2] and let the
joint distribution of Y, Z on [0, 1] x [0,2] be given by
1
dPy,z (y, z) ==(y²z+yz2) dy dz.
harks 12 Find the distribution Py of the random variable Y.
[8 Marks]
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