Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN: 9780134506593
Author: James T. McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 14, Problem 14.71ACI
IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5) and the 2015 monthly IBM stock prices.
a. Use the exponentially smoothed series (with w = .5 from January to September 2015 to forecast the monthly values of the IBM stock price from October to December 2015. Calculate the forecast errors.
b. Use a simple linear regression model fit to the IBM stock prices from January to September 2015. Let time t
c. With what approximate precision do you expect to be able to predict the IBM stock price using the regression model?
d. Give the simple linear regression forecasts and the 95% forecast intervals for the October-December 2015 prices. How does the precision of these forecasts agree with the approximation obtained in part c?
e. Compare the exponential smoothing forecasts, part a, to the regression forecasts, part d, using MAD, MAPE, and RMSE.
f. What assumptions does the random error component of the regression model have to satisfy in order to make the model inferences (such as the forecast intervals in part c) valid?
g. Test to determine whether there is evidence of first-order positive autocorrelation in the random error component of the regression model. Use α = .05. What can you infer about the validity of the model inferences?
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Assume that the current date is February 1, 2021. The linear regression model was applied to a monthly time series data based on the last 24 months' sales. (From January 2019 through December 2020). The following partial computer output summarizes the results.
Coefficient
Estimate
t
Intercept
4.3
2.07
Slope
1.6
2.98
Determine the predicted sales for February.
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Chapter 14 Solutions
Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to construct a simple index.Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words how to calculate the following...Ch. 14.1 - Explain in words the difference between Laspeyres...Ch. 14.1 - The table below gives the prices for three...Ch. 14.1 - Refer to Exercise 14.4. The next table gives the...Ch. 14.1 - Annual median family income. The table below lists...Ch. 14.1 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. While overall...Ch. 14.1 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. The...Ch. 14.1 - Spot price of natural gas. The table shown in the...Ch. 14.1 - Employment in farm and nonfarm categories....
Ch. 14.1 - GOP personal consumption expenditures. The gross...Ch. 14.1 - GDP personal consumption expenditures (contd)....Ch. 14.1 - Weekly earnings for workers. The table in the next...Ch. 14.1 - Production and price of metals. The level or price...Ch. 14.2 - Describe the effect of selecting an exponential...Ch. 14.2 - A monthly time series is shown in the table to the...Ch. 14.2 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.2 - Foreign fish production. Overfishing and pollution...Ch. 14.2 - Yearly price of gold. The price of gold is used by...Ch. 14.2 - Personal consumption in transportation. There has...Ch. 14.2 - OPEC crude oil imports. The data in the table...Ch. 14.2 - SP 500 Stock Index. Standard Poors 500 Composite...Ch. 14.5 - How does the choice of the smoothing constant w...Ch. 14.5 - Refer to Exercise 14.4 (p. 14-9). The table with...Ch. 14.5 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Quarterly single-family housing starts. Refer to...Ch. 14.5 - Consumer Price Index. The CPI measures the...Ch. 14.5 - OPEC crude oil imports. Refer to the annual OPEC...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to the quarterly...Ch. 14.5 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14.5 - Monthly gold prices. The fluctuation of gold...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production. Refer to the...Ch. 14.6 - Annual U.S. craft beer production (contd). Refer...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index. Refer to your exponential...Ch. 14.6 - SP 500 Stock Index (contd). Refer to your Holt...Ch. 14.6 - Monthly gold prices. Refer to the monthly gold...Ch. 14.6 - US school enrollments. The next table reports...Ch. 14.8 - The annual price of a finished product (in cents...Ch. 14.8 - Retail sales in Quarters 14 over a 10-year period...Ch. 14.8 - What advantage do regression forecasts have over...Ch. 14.8 - Mortgage interest rates. The level at which...Ch. 14.8 - Price of natural gas. Refer to Exercise 14.9 (p....Ch. 14.8 - A gasoline tax on carbon emissions. In an effort...Ch. 14.8 - Predicting presidential elections. Researchers at...Ch. 14.8 - Life insurance policies in force. The table below...Ch. 14.8 - Graphing calculator sales. The next table presents...Ch. 14.8 - Prob. 14.47ACICh. 14.9 - Define autocorrelation. Explain why it is...Ch. 14.9 - For each case, indicate the decision regarding the...Ch. 14.9 - What do the following Durbin-Watson statistics...Ch. 14.9 - Company donations to charity. Refer to the Journal...Ch. 14.9 - Forecasting monthly car and truck sales. Forecasts...Ch. 14.9 - Predicting presidential elections. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the data on...Ch. 14.9 - Price of natural gas. Refer to the annual data on...Ch. 14.9 - Life insurance policies in force. Refer to the...Ch. 14.9 - Modeling the deposit share of a retail bank....Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers. Workers insured...Ch. 14 - Insured Social Security workers (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Retail prices of food items. In 1990, the average...Ch. 14 - Demand for emergency room services. With the...Ch. 14 - Mortgage interest rates. Refer to the annual...Ch. 14 - Price of Abbott Labs stock. The yearly closing...Ch. 14 - Price o f Abbott Labs stock (contd). Refer to...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.65ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.66ACICh. 14 - Quarterly GOP values (contd). Refer to Exercise...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.68ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.69ACICh. 14 - Prob. 14.70ACICh. 14 - IBM stock prices. Refer to Example 14.1 (p. 14-5)...Ch. 14 - Prob. 14.72ACI
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