In 1998, Sally Clark was tried for murder after two of her sons died shortly after birth. During the trial, an expert witness for the prosecution testified that the probability of a newborn dying of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) was 1/8500, so the probability of two deaths due to SIDS in one family was (1/8500)7, or about one in 73 million. Therefore, he continued, the probability of Clark's innocence was one in 73 million. What is wrong with the prosecution's reasoning?

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