a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Determine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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The White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout
Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The
marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising
campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added
revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at
only $4.200,000.
If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive
(with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive.
a. Draw the associated decision tree.
b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign?
c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is
now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision
is still the best choice.
d. Perform sensitivity analysis on the cost of ad campaign, which now is 1,900,000.
Determine the range of the cost of advertising for which the current decision is still the
best choice.
e. Determine EVPI for the uncertainty of the success of the advertising campaign
f. Assume the decision involves constant risk aversion. If the R value is 5.000.000 what is the
the utility value of each decision? Which decision is the best?
Transcribed Image Text:The White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at only $4.200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive (with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive. a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice. d. Perform sensitivity analysis on the cost of ad campaign, which now is 1,900,000. Determine the range of the cost of advertising for which the current decision is still the best choice. e. Determine EVPI for the uncertainty of the success of the advertising campaign f. Assume the decision involves constant risk aversion. If the R value is 5.000.000 what is the the utility value of each decision? Which decision is the best?
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