a) b) would have applied the Naïve Model, calculate the Naïve Forecast values for the months of Explain the calculation method for the Naïve Forecast model. If at the end of every month from January/2019 to December/2019, the Sales Manager February/2019 and all the way to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. c) January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. Calculate the Absolute Value of Error for every forecasted month, from February/2019 to d) - Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is much higher? Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the e) Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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I just need the last two please (: 

Problem #1-
The table below shows the actual sales of a Product X sold by Company Y from
January to December of 2019.
Month
Actual Sales
Naïve Forecast -
Absolute Value of
(# of Product X)
Sales
Errors
(# of Product X)
Jan/19
Feb/19
Mar/19
1,860
2,033
3,556
Apr/19
May/19
Jun/19
Jul/19
4,211
6,250
7,990
10,250
9,850
9,980
Aug/19
Sep/19
Oct/19
9,990
Nov/19
Dec/19
7,895
5,353
Jan/20
Explain the calculation method for the Naïve Forecast model.
If at the end of every month from January/2019 to December/2019, the Sales Manager
a)
b)
would have applied the Naïve Model, calculate the Naive Forecast values for the months of
February/2019 and all the way to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above.
c)
Calculate the Absolute Value of Error for every forecasted month, from February/2019 to
January/2020. Enter those values on the table above.
d)
- Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is
much higher?
Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from
March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).
Transcribed Image Text:Problem #1- The table below shows the actual sales of a Product X sold by Company Y from January to December of 2019. Month Actual Sales Naïve Forecast - Absolute Value of (# of Product X) Sales Errors (# of Product X) Jan/19 Feb/19 Mar/19 1,860 2,033 3,556 Apr/19 May/19 Jun/19 Jul/19 4,211 6,250 7,990 10,250 9,850 9,980 Aug/19 Sep/19 Oct/19 9,990 Nov/19 Dec/19 7,895 5,353 Jan/20 Explain the calculation method for the Naïve Forecast model. If at the end of every month from January/2019 to December/2019, the Sales Manager a) b) would have applied the Naïve Model, calculate the Naive Forecast values for the months of February/2019 and all the way to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. c) Calculate the Absolute Value of Error for every forecasted month, from February/2019 to January/2020. Enter those values on the table above. d) - Why are there months when the Absolute Value of Error is very low and months when it is much higher? Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for the Naïve Forecast you created for Product X from March/2019 to January/2020 (not from February/2019 to January/2020).
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