Homework #2 - Decision Making

____1923________ Problem 9 . Which of the following instances appears most likely? Which appears second most likely? a. Drawing a red marble from a bag containing 50 percent red marbles and 50 percent white marbles. Second most likely b. Drawing a red marble seven times in succession, with replacement (i.e., a selected marble is put back into the bag before the next marble is selected), from a bag containing 90 percent red marbles and 10 percent white marbles. c. Drawing at least one red marble in seven tries, with replacement, from a bag containing 10 percent red marbles and 90 percent white marbles. most likely Problem 10 . Ten uncertain quantities are listed below. Do not look up any information about these items. For each, write down your best estimate of the quantity. Next, put a lower and upper bound around your estimate, so that you are 98% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR RANGE SURROUNDS THE ACTUAL QUANTITY . Item Best Estimate Lower Bound Est. Upper Bound Est. Wal-Mart’s 2020 revenue $195 billion $67 billion $585 billion Microsoft’s 2020 revenue $345 billion $70 billion $650 billion World population as of July 2020 8.8 billion 7.2 billion 9.9 billion Market capitalization (price per share times number of shares outstanding) of Best Buy $21 billion $2 billion $100 billion Market capitalization of Heinz $36 billion $4.5 billion $124 billion Rank of McDonald’s in the 2020 Fortune 500 78 500 9 Rank of Nike in the 2020 Fortune 500 21 500 5 The national debt of the U.S. federal government as of July 2020 $23.2 trillion $8 trillion $33 trillion The U.S. federal government budget for the 2020 fiscal year $5.9 trillion $1 trillion $16 trillion