Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 4, Problem 22P
Question
• 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted exponential-smoothing
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Question 3:
Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2,
Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year
2000
E
Enroll-
Year
Quarter
ment
Forecast
Error
Abs Error
1997
313
3.
2
285
4
3
312
5.
4
339
6.
1998
1
359
7
320
356
385
6.
10
1999
396
367
11
397
12
423
13
14
2000
1
15
2000
3412M4
Question #2
Month
Demand
1
45
2
48
3
43
4
48
5
49
6
54
7
47
8
50
9
46
10
47
Using the table above, calculate two forecasts using the following method:-
First, for periods 4 through 10, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.4.
ii. Calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 10, using weights of .70, .20, and .10, with 0.70 applied to the most recent data.
iii. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?
Question Four:
ABC Company sells home appliances. Daily sales for a six-day period were as follows:
Day
Sales
Saturday
20
Sunday
24
Monday
30
Tuesday
40
Wednesday
36
Thursday
44
Forecast Friday sales volume using each of the following methods:
A three-day moving average.
A four day weighted average using weights of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4
Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, assuming Wednesday forecast of 42.
Determine a linear trend line equation for ABC Company.
Use the trend equation to forecast Friday sales volume.
Chapter 4 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- QUESTION ONE (b) The forecast of a product for the first week of January was 200 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 220 units. i. Find the forecast for the week of January assuming the smoothing constant 0.2 α = ii. Find the forecast for the third week of third week of January if the actual demand of the second week is 210 unitsarrow_forwardQuestion a. To select a reliable forecast technique that you can use to predict the future sales of your bags basedon past sales performances, you have considered two different forecasting techniques - Naïve forecast,and exponential smoothing forecast technique with a smoothing constant of 0.20. Now generateforecast results for all 5 months by using Naïve forecast, and exponential smoothing forecast techniquewith a smoothing constant of 0.20. b. Now use Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Mean squared error (MSE), these forecast accuracy orerror measurement tools, and determine which forecast technique between Naïve forecast, andexponential forecast techniques gives the lowest forecast error and highest forecast accuracy.arrow_forwardQuestion 18 A tire company needs a forecast for studded tires in the next forecast period. The company typically uses an exponential smoothing forecast using a smoothing constant of alpha = 0.20. The demand for the most recent period was 100 and the forecast for the same period was 110. Based on this information, what is the tire company's forecast for the next period? Group of answer choices a. 100 tires b. 102 tires c. 108 tires d. 110 tires e. Impossible to determinearrow_forward
- If the forecasted value of the time series variable for one period is 28.5 and the actual value observed for the same period is 32, what is the forecast error for that period? Question 19 options: 3.5 2 -3.5 4arrow_forwardQuestion 1 ABC Restaurant has made a forecast for last week's operations vs Actual result of the forecast last week. Period Monday Tuesday Actual 112 110 113 120 140 Forecast 115 104 Wednesday 110 Thursday 115 Friday 135 Using this table above, solve for Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Note: Round up to the last 2 decimals example 9.6568->9.66arrow_forwardQuestion 3 ABC Restaurant has made a forecast for last week's operations vs Actual result of the forecast last week. Period Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Actual 112 110 113 120 140 Forecast 115. 1041 110 115 135 Using this table above, solve for Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) Note Round up to the last 2 decimals, example 9.6568->9 66 3arrow_forward
- The moving average forecast method should only be used with time series data demonstrating a linear trend. Question 17 options: True Falsearrow_forwardQUESTION 4 A company's focus should be on how to move from a demand-driven mentality to a forecast-driven mentality. True Falsearrow_forwardQuestion 1. The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year (2019ys summer session classes based on the following historical data: YEAR TOTAL ENROLLMENT y 2,000 2,200 2,800 3,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 a) What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?arrow_forward
- •• 4.31 North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table: Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 CALLS 50 35 25 40 45 35 20 30 35 20 15 40 WEEK 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CALLS 55 35 25 55 55 40 35 60 75 50 40 65 a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25? b) Reforecast each period using a = .6. c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing con- stant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used. Pxarrow_forwardQUESTION 9 Use the table below to answer the following questions (Choose only the letter) 3. Periods Observations 24 4 6 34 36 37 41 44 45 Q1: By using naive seasonal model and trend estimate, forecast period 8 A) 41 B) 39.25 C) 37.3 D) 44 Answer Q2: Caleuiation of the forecast error for period 7 according to the simple average method A) 9 B) 1 C) 36 D) 44 Answer Q3: Use the exponential smoothing technique with smoothing constants of 0.3 to forecast for periods 3 (The initial value - The First value) A) 36 B) 24 C) 27 D) 44 Answerarrow_forwardQuestion type: Forecasting a b i ii iii iv V The monthly sales for Otter Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Plot the monthly sales data. Forecast January sales of the next year using each of the following: Naive method. A-3month moving average. A 3-month weighted average using .2, .3, and.5, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. Exponential smoothing using an alpha= .5 and a September forecast of 70. A trend projection. X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sales 30 50 30 66 70 65 60 70 80 99 110 120arrow_forward
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