Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 10P
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
- a. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12.
- b. Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1.
- c. Graph the original data and the two forecasts. Which of the two
forecasting methods seems better?
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Students have asked these similar questions
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
Year
-1
2
Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0
Year
Forecast
4
4.3
This exercise contains only parts a and b.
a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your
responses to one decimal place):
5
4.6
4
3
3.0
5
6
6.6
7
8
4
5 6
9 10
6.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 9.0 13.0 16.0
6
7
8.7
8
9
7
9
8.3
b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2,
and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4
through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place):
Year
Forecast
8
10
9.6
9
11
12.6
10
12
15.3
11
11
17.0
12
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
7
8 9
10
11
Registrations (000)
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
11.0
9.0
6.0
11.0
13.0
16.0
17.0
This exercise contains only parts a and b.
a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses
to one decimal place):
Year
4
6
7
8
10
11
12
Forecast
4.67
6.67
8
8.67
8.67
10
13.33
15.33
b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and
registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12
are (round your responses to one decimal place):
Year
4
5
6
7
8
10
11
12
Forecast
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:
1 2
67
8 9
9
10
10
11
Year
Registrations
(000)
3 4
5
46 4 5 10 8 7
What is the MAD? 2.54
9
12 14 15
a. Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations from year 4 to year 12. What is the forecast? 13.67
b. Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent year are
given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. What is the forecast?
[Select]
What is the MAD? [Select]
c. Use exponential smoothing with (a = .47), assume the initial period forecast is 5. What is the forecast for the next period?
[Select]
What is the MAD? [Select ]
d. Based on Error Analysis, which of the forecasting methods seems better? [Select]
>
Chapter 4 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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