Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 4, Problem 17P
Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing constants of .6 and .9, develop forecasts for the sales of VW Beetles. What effect did the smoothing constant have on the
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9)
Gasoline sales Times Series
week
sales (1000s of gallons
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5
18
6
16
7
20
8
18
9
22
10
20
11
15
12
22
With the above gasoline time series data, show the exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.1
i)Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of Alpha= 0.1 or alpha=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series?
ii)Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
iii)What are the results if MAPE is used?
) Consider the following time series data:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
i)Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?
ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 7.
Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
IV)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain
V)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.
An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the
nalve approach. The linear trend equation is F₂ =126-21t, and it was developed using data from periods 1 through 10. Based on data
for periods 11 through 20 as shown in the table, which of these two methods has the greater accuracy of MAD and MSE are used?
(Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
t
12345671819 38
20
Units Sold
146
146
148
144
153
149
154
157
162
166
Click here for the Excel Data File
MAD (Naive)
MAD (Linear)
MSE (Naive)
MSE (Linear)
provides forecasts with less average error and less average squared error.
Chapter 4 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative foretasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...
Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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