Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 16P
Solved example 4.1
Sales of Volkswagen’s popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below). The sales manager had predicted before the new model was introduced that first year sales would be 410 VWs. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α =.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
| YEAR | SALES | |
| 1 | 450 | 410 |
| 2 | 495 | |
| 3 | 518 | |
| 4 | 563 | |
| 5 | 584 | |
| 6 | ? |
• 4.16 Refer to Solved Problem 4.1.
- a. Using the trend projection (regression) method, develop a forecast for the sales of Volkswagen Beetles in Nevada through year 6.
- b. What is the MAD?
- c. What is the MSE?
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Students have asked these similar questions
QUESTION 8
You are given the following information, comprising of an individual's expenses for the year
2015. Use the information provided hereunder to answer the following questions.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Expenses
1977
820
970
1082
1220
1281
1546
1788
895
1108
1824
1954
a) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period moving average. Calculate the
MAD and MSE.
b) Determine the expenses forecast using a two (2) period weighted moving average. Use
0.8 & 0.2 for the weights of the most recent and second most recent periods respectfully.
Calculate the MAD and MSE.
c) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast using a=0.2. Assume the forecast for the first
month is the actual expenses for that month. Calculate the MAD and MSE.
d) Developed a trend line to forecast expenses
Question 3:
Jane is trying to forecast demand for her store, using moving average with n=2,
Fill in the missing cells with correct values and find average error for first quarter and second quarter of year
2000
E
Enroll-
Year
Quarter
ment
Forecast
Error
Abs Error
1997
313
3.
2
285
4
3
312
5.
4
339
6.
1998
1
359
7
320
356
385
6.
10
1999
396
367
11
397
12
423
13
14
2000
1
15
2000
3412M4
Q4
ABC University wants to develop forecasts for next year's quarterly enrollment. It has collected
quarterly enrollments for the past two years. It has also forecast total annual enrollment for next
year to be 95,000 students. What is the forecast for each quarter of next year?
Enrollment (in 000')
Quarter
Year 1
Year 2
Fall
24
25
Winter
23
22
Spring
18
19
Summer
15
17
Chapter 4 Solutions
Operations Management
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Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Which forecasting technique can place the most...Ch. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - What is the purpose of a tracking signal?Ch. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - What is the difference between a dependent and an...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Give examples of industries in which demand...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - 4.2 a. Plot the above data on a graph. Do you...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual and forecast demand...Ch. 4 - As you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Following are two weekly forecasts made by two...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 138. a. Use a...Ch. 4 - Solved example 4.1 Sales of Volkswagens popular...Ch. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1. Using smoothing...Ch. 4 - Consider the following actual (At) and forecast...Ch. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Question 4.20 Resolve Problem 4.19 with =.1 and ...Ch. 4 - Question 4.21 Refer to the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Question 4.22 Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the...Ch. 4 - Question 4.23 Sales of quilt covers at Bud Baniss...Ch. 4 - Question 4.24 Mark Gershon, owner of a musical...Ch. 4 - Question 4.25 The following gives the number of...Ch. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Question 4.27 George Kyparisis owns a company...Ch. 4 - Question 4.28 Attendance at Orlandos newest...Ch. 4 - Question 4.29 North Dakota Electric Company...Ch. 4 - Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting...Ch. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Question 4.32 The following data relate the sales...Ch. 4 - Question 4.33 The number of internal disk drives...Ch. 4 - Question 4.34 The number of auto accidents in...Ch. 4 - Question 4.35 Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock,...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - Question 4.38 City government has collected the...Ch. 4 - Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist,...Ch. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.39, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.43, forecast...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Thirteen students entered the business program at...Ch. 4 - Question 4.47 Storrs Cycles has just started...Ch. 4 - Question 4.48 Dave Fletcher, the general manager...Ch. 4 - Question 4.49 Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Case study Southwestern University: (B) This...Ch. 4 - Southwestern University: (B) This integrated case...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - For its first 2 decades of existence, the NBAs...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...Ch. 4 - Forecasting at Hard Rock Cafe Video Case With the...
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